Week ahead: New Year's data flurry to keep traders busy
Markets will experience another shortened trading week with all major equity indices closed for New Year's Day on Monday, but traders returning to their desks after the festive holidays will have an influx of economic data to contend with.
After a relatively quiet week between the Christmas and New Year's period, with very little data or corporate updates to move markets in either direction, UK markets have been rangebound over the past few sessions. However, there will be a flurry to economic indicators to digest from Tuesday onwards.
Tuesday will see a host of manufacturing purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from Spain, Italy, Germany, France, the UK and US – all of which are expected to show that the industrial downturn continued in December with figures remaining below the key 50-point level. However, China's manufacturing data, also due on Tuesday, is forecast to show that growth slowed slightly, with the PMI falling from 50.7 to 50.4 – albeit still in positive territory.
On Wednesday, eyes will be fixed on the US where the ISM manufacturing report, JOLTS job openings figures and MBA mortgage applications will be published. Meanwhile, minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be closely watched.
"A rapidly improving inflation outlook and the spectre of rising real rates have led the Fed to start considering the case for policy easing in 2024," said analysts at TD Securities in their January preview email. "[Fed chair Jerome] Powell alluded to this possibility at the Dec FOMC, but Fed officials since then have pushed back on the idea of imminent easing. We expect the minutes to unveil that the FOMC is not entertaining the case for rate cuts just yet."
The corporate earnings calendar will be relatively quiet again for the whole week, but trading updates from UK high street retailers Next and B&M will be monitored on Thursday for signs of consumer buying behaviour over the key festive shopping season.
Meanwhile, next week will see the release of important US labour-market indicators, with the ADP Employment Report and the government's official non-farm payrolls number released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. ADP is pointing to the creation of 100,000 private-sector jobs in December, down from 103,000 in November, while non-farm payrolls are estimated to have eased to 158,000 from 199,000 the month before.
Finally, preliminary 'flash' estimates for eurozone inflation will be on tap on Friday and are expected to show that core consumer price growth slowed to 3.4% in December from 3.6% in November. However, the European Central Bank's preferred measure of inflation, the year-on-year change in the harmonised consumer price index, is tipped to pick up to 3% from 2.4%.
TD Securities analysts explained that base effects from last year's energy subsidies will have likely propelled inflation higher last month, but the impact will only be temporary. "This does not mean inflation is about to break its downward trend – base effects should bring inflation down sharply early next year," they said.
Monday January 01
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fuller Smith and Turner 6% 1st Cumulative Preference 1, Fuller Smith and Turner 8% 2nd Cumulative Preference 1
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
General Accident 'A'
Tuesday January 02
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Fuller Smith & Turner, Renold 6% Cum. Prfd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Sustainable American Income Trust, Land Securities Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Construction Spending (US) (15:00)
PMI Manufacturing (GER) (08:55)
PMI Manufacturing (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (US) (14:45)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
M3 Money Supply (EU) (09:00)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Ecclesiastical Insurance 8.625% Non-Cum Irr Pref Shares
Wednesday January 03
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bunzl, FirstGroup, Next
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
QinetiQ Group
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
ISM Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (08:55)
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Merchants Trust 3.65% Cumulative Preference 1
Thursday January 04
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Caledonia Investments, Castings, Great Portland Estates
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Auto Trader Group , Big Yellow Group, Bisichi , Cohort, Dr. Martens , Iomart Group, Latham (James), Severfield, Triad Group, Workspace Group
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
CT Private Equity Trust, CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B , Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auto Sales (US) (20:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Composite (US) (14:45)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (US) (14:45)
GMS
Tintra , Valirx
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AVI Global Trust
SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Foresight Enterprise VCT
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
B&M European Value Retail SA
Next
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AVI Global Trust , Town Centre Securities
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Baillie Gifford European Growth Trust , Blackrock Frontiers Investment Trust, Braemar , Hargreave Hale AIM VCT , Henderson European Focus Trust, S and U 31.5% Prf. Cum. Prf 12.5P, Unicorn AIM VCT , Witan Investment Trust Plc
Friday January 05
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
British Land Company, Hill and Smith, JD Sports Fashion, RS Group, Tate & Lyle
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Factory Orders (US) (15:00)
ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
Non-Farm Payrolls (US) (13:30)
Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (07:00)
Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)
GMS
MTI Wireless Edge Ltd.
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BioPharma Credit , BioPharma Credit
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Halifax House Price Index (07:00)
PMI Construction (09:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Lok'n Store Group