Week ahead: Central bank minutes, Peru G7/G20 meetings in focus

There will be plenty of macroeconomic data and events out over the coming week to keep investors busy.

Chief among those will be the Monetary Policy Committee´s policy announcement and meeting minutes on Thursday. In the wake of Friday´s US jobs data, policymakers at the Old lady on Threadneedle Street are probably feeling more comfortable with the relatively less aggressive stance taken of late.

However, it would seem safe to say that the same does not hold for some of their counterparts on the other side of the Pond.

The September non-farm payrolls report led traders in Fed funds futures to price-out a rate hike looking out as far as March 2016 at the least. Indeed, depending on many factors that underlying prediction can change – some analysts at the likes of Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan are still wary about writing off the probability of a hike in rates come December.

Nonetheless, for now the situation – like it or not - is that the FOMC and an influential segment of the market are not signing from the same hymn sheet.

No wonder there has been so much dissonance coming from global capital markets lately.

Against that backdrop, a smattering of speeches towards the end of the week from top-ranking officials at the Fed may help to clarify, more or less in real-time, if the jobs report ruffled the feathers of some Fed hawks at all. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will also make for an interesting read.

So who cares about Peru?

More worrying than traders and the Fed being at odds is the risk of global leaders and economic officials each pursuing their own agenda regardless of the impact on others.

On Thursday, finance ministers from the G-7 and G-20 will have a chance to get their act together, when they meet in Lima, Peru. The choice of venue is particularly appropriate this time around. Peru´s economy has been growing at a frenetic pace over the last decade and a half. Yes, they got lucky with the China-led commodity 'Super-cycle' but unlike some of their neighbours they did not squander those gains.

As Mohammed El-Erian, Alianz´s economic adviser, told CNBC last Thursday "[The US economy] is not that powerful to pull everybody out". Emerging markets have come "completely unhinged" and could drag Europe into recession.

Carry on and keep spending

The minutes of the ECB´s last policy meeting, scheduled for Thursday, will be scrutinised, especially any references to the possibility of additional stimulus in the pipeline.

On Monday, Eurostat will publish its latest data on euro area retail sales. One can confidently say those figures are usually (never say always) completely ignored by traders, but they should not pass unnoticed by investors.

Given the slowdown seen in global manufacturing and trade, together with capital outflows from emerging markets (Germany´s is the most reliant economy in the Eurozone on EM demand), means the US and European consumer will increasingly be called on to keep things moving along.

Data on UK industrial output, the services sector and both house prices and those out on the Main Street are also all due to be published over the coming days.

Lastly, figures on money supply and new loans from China are set to be released on 10 October.

Monday 05 October

INTERIMS
Tisco Blackstar Group SE (DI)

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AL Noor Hospitals Group, ARM Holdings

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
JP Morgan Chase & Co

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Harmonised Competitiveness Indicators (EU) (09:00)
ISM Non-Manufacturing (US) (15:00)
ISM Services (US) (15:00)
PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)
PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)
PMI Services (EU) (09:00)
PMI Services (GER) (08:55)
Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)

FINALS
Bioventix, Waterman Group

ANNUAL REPORT
Earthport

EGMS
Petroceltic International

AGMS
Zibao Metals Recycling Holdings

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Official Reserves (09:30)
PMI Composite (09:30)
PMI Services (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Pinewood Group

Tuesday 06 October

INTERIMS
Ted Baker

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Holders Technology, Tex Holdings

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (US) (13:30)
Factory Orders (GER) (11:00)
PMI Construction (GER) (08:30)
PMI Retail (EU) (09:10)
PMI Retail (GER) (09:10)

FINALS
Firestone Diamonds, St Ives

ANNUAL REPORT
Goldplat

EGMS
Public Joint Stock Company Rosseti GDR (Each REPR 200 ORD) Reg S, Sefton Resources Inc.

AGMS
Sefton Resources Inc.

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Greggs

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
New Car Registrations (09:00)

Wednesday 07 October

INTERIMS
Tesco

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Latin American Inv Trust, Maintel Holdings, Rathbone Brothers

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Blackrock North American Income Trust

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
Industrial Production (GER) (11:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

FINALS
Ceres Power Holdings, Gemfields

ANNUAL REPORT
Avingtrans

AGMS
Goodwin Plc, Hargreaves Services, OPG Power Ventures

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Bankers Petroleum Ltd.(CDI), Tricorn Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (00:01)
Industrial Production (09:30)
Manufacturing Production (09:30)

Thursday 08 October

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Antofagasta, Arrow Global Group, Communisis, Crest Nicholson Holdings, Molins, PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Restaurant Group, Zotefoams

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Amati Vct 2, Andrews Sykes Group, Aviva, Braime (T.F.& J.H.) Holdings, Braime (T.F.& J.H.) Holdings (Non-Voting), Brammer, Cenkos Securities, Central Asia Metals, Cobham, Crawshaw Group, Elegant Hotels Group , F&C Private Equity Trust, Graphite Enterprise Trust, Hunting, Iona Environmental VCT, Iona Environmental Vct 'B' Shares, Johnson Service Group, Judges Scientific, Kingfisher, Learning Technologies Group , London Security, Macfarlane Group, Northbridge Industrial Services, Premier Technical Services Group , Proven Planned Exit VCT, Rightmove, Saga , SIG, Smith & Nephew, Spirax-Sarco Engineering, StatPro Group, Synthomer, Tandem Group, Travis Perkins, Unite Group, Weir Group, Witan Pacific Inv Trust, WPP

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
XP Power Ltd. (DI)

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Fair Oaks Income Fund Limited , Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc., Merchants Trust, Schroder Income Growth Fund, Verizon Communications

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

FINALS
DFS Furniture, Produce Investments

ANNUAL REPORT
Produce Investments

IMSS
Hays

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Next, River and Mercantile Group , Synergy Health

AGMS
UniVision Engineering Ltd.

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Marston's

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
BoE Interest Rate Minutes (09:30)
RICS Housing Market Survey (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Diageo

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Begbies Traynor Group, City of London Investment Group, CPL Resources, DX (Group), Fulcrum Utility Services Ltd. (DI), Hays, Pembroke Vct, Photo-Me International, Redde, River and Mercantile Group

Friday 09 October

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Admiral Group, Ashley (Laura) Holding, Berendsen, Bwin.party Digital Entertainment, Cape, Capital Drilling Ltd. (DI), Centamin (DI), Centaur Media, Clarke (T.), Countrywide, Drax Group, Eurocell , Grafton Group Units, H&T Group, JPMorgan American Inv Trust, Lavendon Group, Phoenix Spree Deutschland Limited SHS NPV , STV Group, UBM, Virgin Money Holdings (UK) , Xaar

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Income Strategies Trust , Land Securities Group, Schlumberger Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Import and Export Price Indexes (US) (13:30)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Admiral Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
X5 Retail Group NV GDR (Reg S)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AdEPT Telecom, Betfair Group, Colefax Group, Conviviality Retail , Ebiquity, Goodwin Plc, Henderson Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Newmark Security PLC, Sepura