Week ahead: Central banks in focus, US Fed above all

Would the US central bank raise rates again when it met in July or would the next hike be postponed until September. That was the main question which investors would try to resolve over the coming week, although if the 'Leave' camp were to succeed on 23 June then the answer would become a dead certainty over the course following week, albeit in unexpected fashion.

The US Federal Open Market Committee, the US equivalent of the bank of England's MPC, was set to decide on policy on 15 June. No changes were expected in the main policy settings, but Fed chair Janet Yellen's post-meeting press conference would be very closely followed by all market participants.

Data released on 3 June revealed that US non-farm payrolls grew by a paltry 38,000 in May, undershooting forecasts for a rise of 160,000 by a wide margin.

That reading appeared to sit very uncomfortably with other data out on the US economy recently, with the Federal Reserve bank of Atlanta's GDPNow tracking model then pointing to growth of 2.5% in the economy over the second quarter.

Nevertheless, the statistical reality of things was that since 1960 when US payroll growth had dipped "persistently below its recovery-period average", the US economy had more often than not found itself in a recession, as defined by the NBER, 9 to 18 months afterwards, Barclays's Michael Gapen said in a research note sent to clients on 3 June.

On a related note, on Friday Jim Reid, from Deutsche Bank, commented on the results of the survey conducted among the 1,000 participants at the 20th DB Leverage Finance conference, which had concluded on the previous day.

When asked when the next recession would begin Stateside, the answers were: 4.2% - 2016, 29.1% - 2017, 44.1% - 2018, 12.2% - 2019, 10.3% 2020 or beyond.

While not conclusive by any means, the mere fact the question was asked might be a reflection that the topic was indeed on investors' minds.

In the following session, on Thursday, both the Bank of Japan and Bank of England were set to decide on policy too.

Stateside, the main economic data points of the week were expected to be the latest figures on retail sales, factory gate inflation and consumer prices.

Meanwhile, and in the UK, employment data on Wednesday and the latest figures on retail sales, which were due out on the next day, held the greatest potential to sway markets.

Monday 13 June

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Barloworld Ltd., Tiso Blackstar Group SE (DI)

FINALS
Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust Ltd

EGMS
Mortice Ltd. (DI)

AGMS
Trader Media East Ltd GDR (Reg S)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
AA

Tuesday 14 June

INTERIMS
Crest Nicholson Holdings, Servoca

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Inventories (US) (15:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (21:30)
Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)
Retail Sales (US) (13:30)
Retail Sales Less Autos (US) (13:30)

Q4
Ashtead Group

FINALS
Abzena, Ashtead Group, CML Microsystems, Falkland Islands Holdings, Findel, Halma, Market Tech Holdings Limited , Norcros, Park Group, Shield Therapeutics, Trifast

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI)

AGMS
City Merchants High Yield Trust, Dragon-Ukrainian Properties & Development, HMS Hydraulic Machines & Systems Group GDR, ICG Enterprise Trust, Inspired Energy, PJSC Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port GDR (Reg S), Premier Farnell, Pro Global Insurance Solutions , Synairgen, Ted Baker, TP Group, Velocys plc, Walcom Group (DI)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Ted Baker

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Producer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI)

Wednesday 15 June

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aeci 5 1/2% Prf, Diploma

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)
FOMC Interest Rate (US) (19:00)
Industrial Production (US) (14:15)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

FINALS
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Oxford Instruments

AGMS
Attraqt Group , Christie Group, Downing Three VCT C Shares, Downing Two VCT 'C' Shs, HSS Hire Group , International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI), Jimmy Choo , Kingfisher, Livanova , Manx Telecom , Mayair Group, Mytrah Energy Ltd, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd GBP, NB Global Floating Rate Income Fund Ltd USD, NetScientific , OJSC OC Rosneft GDRS (Reg S), Toyota Motor Corp., UK Commercial Property Trust

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Central Asia Metals, Morrison (Wm) Supermarkets, Share plc

Thursday 16 June

INTERIMS
CareTech Holding, Safestore Holdings

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aberdeen Asset Management

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Alternative Networks, Majedie Investments, Scottish Inv Trust, Watkin Jones

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Real Estate Credit Investments PCC Ltd Pref Shs , TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
Current Account (US) (13:30)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)

GMS
Societatea Nationala De Gaze Naturale Romgaz S.A. GDR (Reg S)

FINALS
Atkins (WS), Charles Stanley Group, Consort Medical, Darty, Purplebricks Group, Redcentric

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Northern 3 VCT, Safestyle UK

EGMS
Societatea Nationala De Gaze Naturale Romgaz S.A. GDR (Reg S)

AGMS
Blinkx, Blur Group , Constellation Healthcare Technologies, Inc (DI/REG S), Evraz, Himalayan Fund NV, Nokia OYJ, Puricore, Serabi Gold

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BoE Interest Rate Decision (12:00)
BoE Interest Rate Minutes (12:00)
Retail Sales (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Taptica International (DI)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
3i Group, Alliance Pharma, Amati Vct 2, Big Yellow Group, Electrocomponents, First Derivatives, Harvey Nash Group, Indivior, Intermediate Capital Group, London & Associated Properties, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Mears Group, Mediclinic International , New Century AIM VCT 2, Northern 3 VCT, ProVen Growth & Income VCT, ProVen VCT, Restaurant Group, S&U, Safestyle UK , Scisys, Severn Trent, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Stobart Group Ltd., Telford Homes, Templeton Emerging Markets Inv Trust, Value and Income Trust, Vianet Group

Friday 17 June

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avingtrans, Cambria Automobiles, Matchtech Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
BP, Carnival

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Building Permits (US) (13:30)
Current Account (EU) (09:00)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)

GMS
Rexam

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
U And I Group

EGMS
JZ Capital Partners Ltd

AGMS
British American Inv Trust, Charlemagne Capital Ltd., Hunters Property , JD Sports Fashion, JZ Capital Partners Ltd, Silence Therapeutics, Zincox Resources

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Blancco Technology Group, Burford Capital , Fairpoint Group, Howden Joinery Group, LLoyds Banking Group 6.367% Non-Cum Fxd/Fltg Rte Pref Shares, Quarto Group Inc., Soco International, Ted Baker, Witan Pacific Inv Trust