Week ahead: Inflation figures in UK, China and US flood market

Inflation data in the UK, China and the US will be in the spotlight this coming week.

The consumer price index in the UK, released on Tuesday, is expected to pick up in September to 0.1% year-on-year following a drop to 0% in August.

The Bank of England, which is targeting 2% inflation, said the outlook for CPI in coming months looked weaker than it previously thought, according to the meeting minutes of its 8 September policy meeting. The central bank, which is taking inflation into close consideration in determining the timing of an interest rate hike, said CPI was unlikely to reach 1% until the spring of 2016.

The BoE is also closely monitoring the health of the UK labour market in its policy decisions. The UK’s jobs report on Wednesday will therefore be under the microscope with analysts predicting the headline ILO unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in the three months to September from a prior 5.5%. Average weekly earnings are forecast to grow 3.1% during the period, compared to 2.9% in the previous quarter when it reached a six-year high.

Chinese inflation on Wednesday is expected to show an a 2.1% year-on-year increase in September on the back of higher food price inflation as pork prices continue to rise. CPI rose 2% in August. “The extra holiday in the month will also push up service price inflation (such as tourism), adding to the upward pressure on headline CPI inflation,” according to HSBC analysts.

The world’s second largest economy also sees the release of trade data on Tuesday. Exports are expected to have contracted 3.7% year-on-year in September, on weak external demand and an extra holiday in the month.

Imports are projected to fall 13%, year-on-year as sluggish commodity prices continued to weigh on growth. As a result, the trade surplus may have fallen from $60.2bn to $46.8bn, according to analysts’ predictions.

The data comes amid concerns about the flagging Chinese economy, which slowed to 7.4% last year, ending decades of double digit growth. The government has forecast growth to slow further to about 7% this year.

On Thursday, the US headline CPI is estimated to fall 0.1% year-on-year in September and 0.2% month-on-month, amid falling oil prices. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as fuel and food, is estimated to have risen 0.16% month-on-month September, compared to the previous month’s 0.07% increase. Year-on-year it is projected to have held at a1.8% gain.

The Federal Reserve’s minutes of its 16-17 September meeting on 8 September revealed that the central bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged on concerns that inflation could remain stuck at exceptionally low levels. The Fed is targeting 2% inflation.

Monday 12 October

INTERIMS

Tissue Regenix Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Savills

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Treasury Budget Statement (US) (19:00)

FINALS

Tristel, YouGov

ANNUAL REPORT

Asian Citrus Holding, Hansard Global

AGMS

Asian Citrus Holding, CAP-XX Limited

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Jupiter Fund Management

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

UniVision Engineering Ltd.

Tuesday 13 October

INTERIMS

LiDCO Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Intertek Group

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Trade balance (CHINA)

Consumer Price Index (GER) (07:00)

ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)

ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)

GMS

O'Key Group GDR (Reg S) (WI)

FINALS

DotDigital Group, Nanoco Group, Proactis Holdings

IMSS

Michael Page International

EGMS

GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd, UDG Healthcare Public Limited Company

AGMS

CSF Group, FinnAust Mining, Leeds Group, Myanmar Investments International Ltd, Premaitha Health

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Michael Page International

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

BRC Sales Monitor (00:01)

Consumer Price Index (09:30)

Producer Price Index (09:30)

Retail Price Index (09:30)

Wednesday 14 October

INTERIMS

Brown (N.) Group, Vertu Motors, Walker Greenbank

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Acencia Debt Strategies Ltd., Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd (Bermuda), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Hellermanntyton Group, Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Bermuda), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Jersey), Hongkong Land Holding Ltd. (Sing.Reg), IDOX, Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd (Singapore Reg), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd. (Jersey), Jardine Strategic Holdingd Ltd. (Bermuda), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd. (Singapore), Mandarin Oriental International (Bermuda), Mandarin Oriental International (Jersey), Mandarin Oriental International (Singapore), Neptune-Calculus Income & Growth VCT

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Abbott Laboratories

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Beige Book Fed Survey (US) (19:00)

Business Inventories (US) (00:00)

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales Inventories (US) (15:00)

FINALS

Animalcare Group, Connect Group, Imperial Innovations Group

IMSS

Hargreaves Lansdown

EGMS

Ultima Networks

AGMS

Diverse Income Trust (The)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Domino's Pizza Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Claimant Count Rate (09:30)

Unemployment Rate (09:30)

Thursday 15 October

INTERIMS

Booker Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Belvoir Lettings, Chesnara, Macfarlane Group, RPS Group, RSA Insurance Group, UTV Media

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

British American Inv Trust, British Polythene Industries, Cambian Group, Card Factory, Charles Taylor, Dillistone Group, Impellam Group, Jiasen International Holdings Ltd, Kerry Group 'A' Shares, Manx Telecom , Mears Group, OneSavings Bank, Pennant International Group, Restore, Smart Metering Systems, Spectris, Sprue Aegis, Staffline Group, Ted Baker, TT Electronics

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Middlefield Canadian Income PCC

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (15:00)

Q3

Schlumberger Ltd., Unilever

GMS

Filtronic, Metals Exploration, Tinci Holdings Ltd. (DI)

FINALS

Pure Wafer, WH Smith

ANNUAL REPORT

Smiths Group

IMSS

Ferrexpo, Man Group, Renishaw

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Card Factory

EGMS

Nord Gold NV GDR (Reg S), Zhejiang Expressway Co 'H' Shares

AGMS

IG Group Holdings, IPPlus, Mattioli Woods, Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd GDR (Reg S), Rank Group, Renishaw

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

HML Holdings

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bioventix, Clinigen Group, Close Brothers Group, Daejan Holdings, Dunelm Group, Haynes Publishing Group, Henderson EuroTrust, IPPlus, Mid Wynd International Inv Trust, Pacific Horizon Inv Trust, Petra Diamonds Ltd.(DI), Produce Investments, Revolution Bars Group, Schroder Japan Growth Fund, Strategic Equity Capital

Friday 16 October

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Barr (A.G.), Christie Group, Computacenter, esure Group, G4S, Glanbia, Highcroft Investment, Highland Gold Mining Ltd., Octopus AIM VCT 2, Petrofac Ltd., Robert Walters, SafeCharge International Group Limited (DI), Total Produce, Treatt, Tribal Group

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)

Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)

Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)

Industrial Production (US) (14:15)

New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)

U. of Michigan Confidence (Prelim) (US) (15:00)

Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)

GMS

React Energy, Trinity Exploration & Production

FINALS

Volution Group (WI)

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

esure Group

AGMS

Mortice Ltd. (DI)

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Record

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Best of the Best, Dart Group, Trifast, United Carpets Group