Week ahead: US CPI, economic data and Fed speak in the spotlight

All eyes over the coming week would be on the US consumer price report for January and to what extent inflation reaccelerated in month-on-month terms.

On Tuesday, the Department of Labor was expected to report that headline CPI jumped by 0.5% month-on- month after December's 0.1% dip, while core CPI was anticipated to have continued rising at a 0.3% pace.

Although there were reasons to believe that prices would moderate again in the spring, until then the risk was that the recent rate of decline would slow down substantially, which could push interest rate expectations higher, which would in turn weigh on risk assets.

One of the key drivers of the expected moderation in prices would be the start of falls in owners' equivalent rent and rent prices, the exact timing of which was near impossible to predict. It might come a bit sooner or a bit later.

Also due out was a raft of economic data Stateside, with economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics cautioning that the unusually warm weather could see a string of strong-looking readings in the weeks ahead, although that strength too was expected to ebb afterwards as the weather effects faded.

On the flip-side, economists at Barclays believed that resilience in the jobs market would prop up consumption and result in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.5% and 1.0% in the first and second quarters of 2023, followed by declines of 0.5% and 1.0% in the last two quarters of the year.

"Positive economic developments over the last two months (including China's reopening, lower European natural gas prices and "robust" US jobs data) have pushed recessionary prospects further into the future," Barclays Research said.

"However, better growth also likely makes core inflation more persistent, forcing central banks to become more restrictive for longer. Next week‘s US CPI will be crucial."

Key among those reports would be those for retail sales on Wednesday and the Philly Fed's factory sector index on Thursday.

On top of that, at least 10 top Fed officials were scheduled to take to the podium over the course of the week.

Several key data points were also awaited in the UK, including the December employment report on Tuesday, CPI figures on Wednesday and retail sales numbers on Friday.

In the euro area meanwhile, European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde was scheduled to participate in a plenary debate at the European Parliament on Wednesday.

Speeches from the ECB's chief economist, Philip Lane, and vice-President, Luis de Guindos, would follow on Thursday.

In Asia, rate-setters in the Philippines and Indonesia would meet to decide on policy on Thursday.

Monday 13 February

AGMS

Cellular Goods

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Coventry 12 1/8% Perm Int Bearing Shs #1000

Tuesday 14 February

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Cohort

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)

GDP (Preliminary) (EU)` (10:00)

FINALS

Carr's Group, Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Plus500 Ltd (DI)

AGMS

Dewhurst Group, TUI AG Reg Shs (DI)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Claimant Count Rate (07:00)

Unemployment Rate (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Blackrock Frontiers Investment Trust, Future, Grainger, Unicorn AIM VCT

Q1

TUI AG Reg Shs (DI)

Wednesday 15 February

INTERIMS

Dunelm Group, Hargreaves Lansdown, Pan African Resources

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Shaftesbury

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Ecora Resources, Marsh & Mclennan Cos Inc.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)

Business Inventories (US) (15:00)

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)

Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

Retail Sales (US) (13:30)

Retail Sales Less Autos (US) (13:30)

Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)

GMS

Softline Holding GDR (REG S)

FINALS

Barclays

ANNUAL REPORT

Glencore

EGMS

Circle Property

AGMS

Blencowe Resources , GCP Infrastructure Investments Ltd

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Consumer Price Index (07:00)

Producer Price Index (07:00)

Retail Price Index (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Keystone Positive Change Investment Trust

Thursday 16 February

INTERIMS

MJ Gleeson

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Knights Group Holdings , Mattioli Woods, Mountview Estates, NCC Group, Triple Point VCT 2011 'B', Triple Point Vct 2011 A

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

M Winkworth

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

BP, ICG Enterprise Trust, NextEnergy Solar Fund Limited Red, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV, Pershing Square Holdings Ltd NPV (USD), Tritax Eurobox (EUR), Tritax Eurobox (GBP)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Building Permits (US) (13:30)

Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:15)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Housing Starts (US) (13:30)

Industrial Production (US) (14:15)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)

Producer Price Index (US) (13:30)

FINALS

Centrica, HarbourVest Global Private Equity Limited A Shs, Moneysupermarket.com Group, Relx plc, Riverstone Credit Opportunities Income

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Mountview Estates

AGMS

Benchmark Holdings , Supermarket Income Reit, Tertiary Minerals

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Supermarket Income Reit

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Henderson Opportunities Trust, Imperial Brands , Jersey Electricity 'A' Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 6.475% Non-Cum Pref Shares

Friday 17 February

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Solid State

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

JPMorgan Asia Growth & Income, JPMorgan Japan Small Cap Growth & Income

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Current Account (EU) (09:00)

Import and Export Price Indices (US) (13:30)

Q4

NATWEST GROUP

FINALS

Allianz Technology Trust, NATWEST GROUP, SEGRO

ANNUAL REPORT

NATWEST GROUP

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

ICG-Longbow Senior Secured UK Property Debt Investments Ltd

AGMS

Sunrise Resources

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Retail Sales (07:00)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

AJ Bell, Focusrite, Victrex plc