Week ahead: US Fed, French and Spanish elections in focus

The coming week will see a deluge of first-tier market data and risk events, but the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting will, probably, eclipse all the others.

On 16 December the US central bank is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in nine-and-a-half years, by 25 basis points.

As of Friday afternoon Fed funds futures were pricing in about an 81% probability of a move, up from 67.8% one month before.

Such odds almost guarantee a rise, but a stubborn minority of traders still appeared to be harbouring doubts.

Time will tell whether their caution is misplaced or not.

Chinese data due out on Sunday, 13 December, would also be in focus, perhaps more following speculation that the country’s central bank might be signalling that may be shifting towards a looser peg between its currency and the US dollar.

Not to be lost amid the torrent of figures and numbers, on the same day French voters will cast their ballots in the country’s second round of regional elections, which may see the far-right FN party gain record support.

"We see this rise of radical politics across Europe as a key risk heading into 2016. The French regional election on Sunday represents the last test of the electorate before Presidential elections in 2017.

“This is one of three key political events in Europe in the coming years (Germany’s federal elections and the Brexit vote included)," Alberto Gallo, RBS head of macro strategy, said in a research note sent to clients on 11 December.

Spanish voters will follow close behind on the following Sunday, on 20 December, to choose a new president.

In the UK, the latest consumer price and employment data are due for release on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

Norway’s and Sweden’s central banks will decide on monetary policy on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Lastly, in Euroland, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s preliminary reading on manufacturing sector activity.

Monday 14 December

INTERIMS
Premaitha Health

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Industrial Production (EU) (10:00)

GMS
Fondul Proprietatea S.A. GDR (Reg S), Physiomics, Rockhopper Exploration, Societatea Commerciala De Distributie Si Furnizare A Energiei Electrice S.A. GDR (Reg S)

EGMS
PJSC Lukoil B' GDR (144A)

AGMS
Conroy Gold & Natural Resources, Gfinity , Hunter Resources, Inland Homes, Karelian Diamond Resources, Leed Resources, World Careers Network

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
YouGov

Tuesday 15 December

INTERIMS
Carpetright, Imagination Technologies Group

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Spire Healthcare Group

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Canadian General Investments Ltd.

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (US) (13:30)
New Car Registrations (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (EU) (10:00)
ZEW Survey (GER) (10:00)

Q3
PJSC RusHydro ADR

GMS
AL Noor Hospitals Group, Hvivo

FINALS
New City Energy Ltd NPV, Pressure Technologies

ANNUAL REPORT
New City Energy Ltd NPV

EGMS
GVC Holdings, Hayward Tyler Group

AGMS
Chelverton Growth Trust, DotDigital Group, Edinburgh Dragon Trust, Fidelity Special Values, Foresight Solar VCT, Northamber, Pantheon Resources, Sareum Holdings, Tristel, Utilitywise plc, Volution Group (WI)

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Price Index (09:30)
Producer Price Index (09:30)
Retail Price Index (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Aeci 5 1/2% Prf, Craneware, Digital Globe Services Ltd (DI)

Wednesday 16 December

INTERIMS
Dixons Carphone , Supergroup, Tungsten Corporation

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Brunner Inv Trust, M Winkworth

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Trade (EU) (10:00)
Capacity Utilisation (US) (14:45)
Consumer Price Index (EU) (10:00)
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)
FOMC Interest Rate (US) (19:00)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (EU) (10:00)
Housing Starts (US) (13:30)
Industrial Production (US) (14:45)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)
Wholesale Price Index (GER) (07:00)

GMS
Alba Mineral Resources, Johnson Matthey, Twentyfour Income Fund Limited Ord Red

FINALS
Elegant Hotels Group , IDOX

AGMS
Altona Energy, BowLeven, EpiStem Holdings, Henderson Far East Income Ltd., Standard Life Equity Income Trust

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Claimant Count Rate (09:30)
Unemployment Rate (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Plexus Holdings, World Careers Network

Thursday 17 December

INTERIMS
Miton UK Microcap Trust

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
E2V Technologies, Liontrust Asset Management, PayPoint

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Berkeley Group Holdings (The), Betfair Group, Bilby, Bonmarche Holdings, Greene King, Halfords Group, JPMorgan Euro Small Co. Trust, Mitie Group, Octopus AIM VCT, Plastics Capital, Severfield, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Speedy Hire, United Utilities Group, Vianet Group, World Trust Fund

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Assura , Mercantile Investment Trust (The), XP Power Ltd. (DI)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (US) (13:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)
Current Account (US) (13:30)
ECB Report (EU) (09:00)
IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:00)
IFO Business Climate (GER) (09:30)
IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:00)
IFO Current Assessment (GER) (09:30)
IFO Expectations (GER) (09:30)
IFO Expectations (GER) (09:00)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)
Leading Indicators (US) (15:00)
Philadelphia Fed Index (US) (13:30)

GMS
Harvest Minerals Limited (DI)

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
James Halstead, OMG

EGMS
Plaza Centers NV, RAB Special Situations Company Limited

AGMS
Amur Minerals Corporation NPV, British Empire Trust, Northern Venture Trust, Orchard Funding Group , Smart (J) & Co., Uranium Resources

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
CBI Industrial Trends Surveys (11:00)
Internet Retail Sales (09:30)
Retail Sales (09:30)

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
GETECH Group, MJ Gleeson

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Carr's Group, Focusrite, Gooch & Housego, Hargreave Hale AIM VCT 1, Marston's, OMG, Qatar Investment Fund, Standard Life European Private Equity Trust, Zoopla Property Group (WI)

Friday 18 December

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Baronsmead VCT, BCA Marketplace, Braemar Shipping Services, C&C Group, Downing Three VCT F Shs, Downing Three VCT H Shs, Downing Two VCT F Shs , Downing Two VCT G Shs, Foresight 4 VCT, John Laing Environmental Assets Group Limited , Octopus Apollo VCT, Safeland, Sophos Group , Telecom Plus, Triple Point Income VCT, ULS Technology , Whitbread, Wynnstay Properties

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Alpha Real Trust Ltd., BP, Royal Dutch Shell 'A', Royal Dutch Shell 'B'

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Balance of Payments (EU) (09:00)
Current Account (EU) (09:00)

GMS
Intu Properties

ANNUAL REPORT
Character Group, Marston's

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Lancashire Holdings Limited

EGMS
Glenwick, Invesco Property Income Trust Ld, Pacific Alliance China Land Ltd.

AGMS
Armstrong Ventures, Botswana Diamonds, Frontera Resources Corporation (DI), GCM Resources, Hellenic Carriers Ltd., JPMorgan Japanese Inv Trust, React Energy, Renewable Energy Generation Ltd., Stellar Diamonds

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Berendsen

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BlackRock Greater Europe Inv Trust, Downing Three VCT D Share , Downing Two VCT D Share , Edinburgh Dragon Trust, JPMorgan Smaller Companies Inv Trust, Origin Enterprises, Sanditon Investment Trust, Tristel, Volution Group (WI)