Week ahead: US non-farm payrolls, Fed minutes in the spotlight

The market spotlight over the coming week will be firmly on the US non-farm payrolls report that will be published Friday.

Consensus is for a slowdown in the pace of hiring from the 390,000 seen in May to 250,000 as domestic demand ebbs.

However, average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% month-on-month, when combined with a flat work week of 34.6 hours "should fuel another decent gain in nominal labour compensation that should help offset erosion in aggregate purchasing power from high inflation," Barclays Research said.

The week's other big event in the US will be the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on 14-15 June.

Economists at Barclays also said they would be looking for clues as to what indicators the committee would be weighing when it next meets on 26-27 July to decide whether to hike the target range for short-term rates by 50 or 75 basis points.

On that note, writing in Project Syndicate on 29 June, Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said: "Most market analysts seem to think that central banks will remain hawkish, but I am not so sure.

"I have argued that they will eventually wimp out and accept higher inflation – followed by stagflation – once a hard landing becomes imminent, because they will be worried about the damage of a recession and a debt trap, owing to an excessive build-up of private and public liabilities after years of low interest rates."

On home shores, the key release will be Tuesday's final reading for S&P Global's UK services sector Purchasing Managers' index for June.

Due out the same day will a rival reading on euro area services, followed by the ISM Institute's closely-followed survey for the US the next day.

A speech by European Central Bank boss, Christine Lagarde, the next day, may also merit watching.

In Japan, upper house elections on 10 July may hand a one-party majority to the LDP, prompting the country's Prime Minister to pursue policies aimed more at distribution instead of ending deflation.

Down Under, rate-setters in Sydney will meet to decide on interest rates on Tuesday with economists anticipating a 50 basis point hike in the Cash Rate to 1.35%.

Monday 4 July

FINALS

ReNeuron Group, JPMorgan Global Core Real Assets Limited, Augmentum Fintech, Braemar Shipping Services

INTERIMS

Porvair, Harmony Energy Income Trust

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

H&T Group, Bigblu Broadband

AGMs

Active Energy Group

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Bunzl, Billington Holdings, Ferrexpo

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Balance of Trade (GER) (07:00)

Producer Price Index (EU) (10:00)

Tuesday 5 July

FINALS

CML Microsystems, Supreme

INTERIMS

Kitwave Group

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Cairn Homes (CDI)

AGMs

Keystone Law Group, Saga, Immediate Acquisition, CT Automotive Group, Smartspace Software, Open Orphan

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Synthomer, Warpaint London, Jadestone Energy

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Composite (09:30)

PMI Services (09:30)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Composite (GER) (08:55)

PMI Services (GER) (08:55)

PMI Services (EU) (09:00)

PMI Composite (EU) (09:00)

Factory Orders (US) (15:00)

Wednesday 6 July

FINALS

Enteq Technologies, D4T4 Solutions, Zoo Digital Group, Redde Northgate, ActiveOps, Argentex Group

INTERIMS

Robert Walters

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Ten Entertainment Group

AGMs

Assura, Mining, Minerals & Metals, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Worldwide Healthcare Trust

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Balfour Beatty

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Britvic, Hollywood Bowl Group

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

PMI Construction (09:30)

INTERNATIONAL ECONNOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Factory Orders (GER) (07:00)

Retail Sales (EU) (10:00)

MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (12:00)

PMI Composite (US) (14:45)

PMI Services (US) (14:45)

ISM Prices Paid (US) (15:00)

ISM Services (US) (15:00)

Crude Oil Inventories (US) (15:30)

FOMC Interest Rate Minutes (US) (19:00)

Thursday 7 July

FINALS

Watches of Switzerland Group, Currys, Baltic Classifieds Group, Jet2

TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS

Time Finance, Vistry Group, Persimmon, Entain, RS Group

AGMs

Hiro Metaverse Acquisitions I S.A. Cls A Ord Npv (DI), Pets at Home Group, Severn Trent, Octopus Apollo VCT, Emmerson NPV, 3i Infrastructure, Tomco Energy, Brown (N.) Group, Distil, Land Securities Group, Puma Vct 13, C&C Group (CDI), Great Portland Estates, Maven Income & Growth VCT, Sainsbury (J), FD Technologies Public Limited Company

EGMs

Faron Pharmaceuticals Oy (DI)

FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Cropper (James), Big Yellow Group, Mountview Estates, Next Fifteen Communications, Bisichi, New Century AIM VCT 2, Aveva Group, Sirius Real Estate Ltd., Camellia, Coca-Cola HBC AG (CDI), Caffyns, Fuller Smith & Turner, Shires Income, Concurrent Technologies, JD Sports Fashion, Workspace Group

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Young & Co's Brewery (Non-Voting), Alliance Pharma, Irish Continental Group Units (Comp) (CDI), Lords Group Trading, Young & Co's Brewery 'A' Shares

INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Murray International Trust, Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, CC Japan Income & Growth Trust, Next, Albion Venture Capital Trust, Premier Miton Group, Dewhurst Group 'A'NON.VTG, Paragon Banking Group, Safestore Holdings, Up Global Sourcing Holdings, Dewhurst Group, European Assets Trust, Tavistock Investments, Schroder Income Growth Fund, New Century AIM VCT, abrdn Latin American Income Fund Limited NPV, Polar Capital Holdings

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Smiths News

SPECIAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE

Bisichi, Kings Arms Yard VCT, Pembroke Vct B

QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE

CT UK High Income Trust, CT UK High Income Trust B, CT Private Equity Trust, Primary Health Properties, Marble Point Loan Financing Limited NPV, ICG Enterprise Trust, Real Estate Credit Investments Ltd, British American Tobacco

QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE

Law Debenture Corp.

UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Halifax House Price Index (07:00)

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Industrial Production (GER) (07:00)

Continuing Claims (US) (13:30)

Initial Jobless Claims (US) (13:30)

Friday 8 July

FINALS

Great Eastern Energy Corp Ltd. GDR

AGMs

Kavango Resources

FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Restore, Keystone Law Group, Christie Group, Animalcare Group, Hill & Smith Holdings, JTC, London Security, S&U, Capital & Counties Properties, Sopheon, Forterra, Likewise Group, WPP, Judges Scientific, Computacenter

INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Income & Growth VCT, CT Global Managed Portfolio Trust Inc Shs, US Solar Fund, US Solar Fund (GBP), NB Global Monthly Income Fund Limited Red Ord Shs NPV £, Triple Point Energy Efficiency Infrastructure Company

Associated British Foods, Mobeus Income & Growth 4 Vct, ,I3 Energy

SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE

Persimmon, Keystone Law Group

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS

Nonfarm Payrolls (US) (13:30)

Unemployment Rate (US) (13:30)

Wholesales Inventories (US) (15:00)

Consumer Credit (US) (20:00)