FX round-up All eyes on Parliament as pound bounces back, Turkish lira finds a bid

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Sharecast News | 01 Apr, 2019

Sterling jumped back at the start of the week, even as investors waited on the results of Monday night's indicative votes in the House of Commons.

Traders linked the move to the possibility of a soft Brexit taking form in their wake, but there was a fair bit of speculation at the weekend that, faced with that prospect, the government would call snap elections.

As of 1755 BST, the pound was strengthening by 0.69% versus the US dollar to 1.3125 and by 0.79% versus the euro to 1.1712.

Commenting on some of the potential implications of the votes in Parliament, IG's Josh Mahony said: "Another week, another huge vote ahead for Parliament [...]

"Labour support for the custom market 2.0 has pushed it forward as a likely contender [...] the pound is likely to rise should parliament garner enough support for this softer form of Brexit. There is no doubt that Labour will recognise that a win for custom market 2.0 would likely lead to another election, and thus while such a win should be good for the pound, it would also ramp up uncertainty of the pathway forward."

A much stronger-than-expected print on IHS Markit's manufacturing sector PMI for the UK in March also triggered some buying in the pound, despite the chief reason for such a solid reading being companies' drive to build stockpiles ahead of a possibly disruptive Brexit.

IHS Markit's factory sector PMI jumped from a reading of 52.1 for February to 55.1 in March (consensus: 51.3).

In the background meantime, the US dollar spot index was nearly flat at 97.2800, having climbed off an intraday low of 97.0320 on the back of better-than-expected readings on the ISM manufacturing sector index for March and construction spending data for February.

Stoking gains in the Greenback, the ISM's US factory PMI printed at 55.3 for March, after a reading of 54.2 in the month before, beating forecasts of 54.4 and, in the words of analysts at Barclays Research "[placing] manufacturing on a somewhat less mediocre growth trajectory".

To take note of, benchmark US Treasury note yields rallied hard on the back of those economic reports, with that on the two-year note trading up by seven basis points to 2.33%.

The results of the municipal elections in Turkey at the weekend also brought trading in emerging market currencies into sharp relief on Monday.

On Sunday, the ruling AK party lost in the country's three major cities, Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, dealing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a stinging rebuke.

In response, the US dollar shed 1.56% in its cross against the lira to trade at 5.4836.

The Greenback was also lower versus Russia's rouble, slipping by 0.48% to 65.3615 after Rosstat published revised data for 2018 revealing a pace of expansion of 2.3%, with the pace of expansion hitting a 2.7% year-on-year clip over the last three months of the year.

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