FX round-up: Sterling mixed amid political uncertainty, surges against NZ dollar

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Sharecast News | 09 Feb, 2017

Sterling plugged away to produce a mixed performance on key crosses in a session that has been cautious given the glut of global political uncertainty.

At 17:18 GMT, sterling was down 0.15% to $1.2522, the dollar having ticked higher after US President Donald Trump reportedly said he would have something phenomenal on tax in 2-3 weeks.

"It (sterling) has slipped back from its highs on the back of a rebound in the US dollar, in the wake of those Trump tax comments," said Michael Hewson, CMC Markets UK's chief market analyst.

Sterling was up on the euro -- by 0.19% to €1.1744 -- after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble said the only way for Greece to get a debt cut would be to leave the Eurozone. This statement also saw Greek yields soaring.

"The pound has continued its recent resilient tone apparently unperturbed that the Article 50 bill is now in the House of Lords," said Hewson. This placed UK Prime Minister Theresa May on track to trigger Article 50 on 9 March.

Hewson also noted news that Bank of England policymaker Kristin Forbes would not be staying in her post beyond 30 June.

eToro's Ralph Sedgwick opined that sterling had been holding like a dream at "a buck and a quarter." He said analysts were now commenting that downside risk had all but disappeared.

The British unit was lower against the Canadian dollar, but advanced against the Australian dollar, South African rand and Japanese yen.

It was particularly firmer against the New Zealand dollar -- up 1.14% to NZ$1.3924 -- after that country's central bank governor said he wanted a weaker currency, and left the Official Cash Rate at 1.75%.

Chris Saint, senior analyst at HL Currency Service, said Reserve Bank of New Zealand's stance dampened bets on future rate rises by cautioning monetary policy would stay accommodative for a considerable period, reiterating the kiwi remained too high.

Meantime, the dollar-spot index was up 0.3% to $100.580, while the greenback itself was gaining on the euro, aussie, kiwi, rand and yen, but lower on the loonie.

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK said strong US jobs data confirmed the argument that slack in the market is eroding.

"The Federal Reserve is back in the driving seat, as Donald Trump is not sure if the strong and weak dollar is good for the economy," Aslam said.

"The message out of the Fed is clear -- March (Fed) meeting is live. If Donald Trump does not change his stance on the dollar, it will have a positive shock for the dollar."

"We could see the dollar index roaring once again."

On the data front, Germany's trade surplus hit a record high in 2016. It rose to €252.9bn, well above the previous high of €244.3bn in 2015.

In the US, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to 234,000 in the week to 4 February from 246,000 the previous week, compared to forecasts of 249,000.

Wholesale inventories in the US rose 2.6% in December, compared to 0.5% in November, the Commerce Department said.

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