FX Roundup: Dollar jumps on US inflation data

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Sharecast News | 19 Feb, 2016

Updated : 16:46

The dollar headed higher against major forex crosses on Friday, as official data showed US inflation rose above market expectations in January.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the country’s consumer price index increased 1.4% year-on-year last month, beating analysts’ estimates for 1.3% growth and marking a considerable pick-up from December’s 0.7% gain.

The energy price index fell 6.5% over the past 12 months, the smallest yearly decrease since November 2014, compared to a drop of 2.8% in December. The food index was unchanged in January.

Excluding energy and food, CPI jumped 2.2% year-on-year in January following the previous month's 2.1%. Analysts had pencilled in no change.

The US Federal Reserve is taking inflation into consideration in determining the timing of the next change in interest rates. The central bank is targeting 2% inflation.

"The big gains in CPI medical care prices last month point to some upward pressure on core PCE inflation in January," wrote Steve Murphy, US economist at Capital Economics.

"We still think the latter will rebound to the Fed’s target by later this year once the deflationary impact of the stronger dollar fades.

At 1545 GMT, the greenback rose 0.73% against the Canadian dollar changing hands at CAD$1.3826. A plethora of other commodity linked currencies headed lower alongside the loonie, particularly in Latin America, with the dollar notching gains of 0.07%, 0.52% and 0.58% against the Mexican, Colombian pesos and the Brazilian Real.

The Australian dollar fell 0.95% against the greenback exchanging at US$0.7089, while the New Zealand dollar also fell 0.86% on inflation expectations exchanging at US$0.6587. The euro ticked lower too, albeit by a nominal 0.03% exchanging at $1.1107, but the yen stayed strong with the dollar shedding 0.34% to exchange at JPY112.85.

There was a no such respite for the pound sterling which shed another 0.44% to exchange at $1.4274.

FXTM chief market analyst Jameel Ahmad said there are quite simply too many different factors that are going to impact on investor attraction towards the pound on an ongoing basis including emerging concerns over a likely decline in economic growth, a never-ending stretch of interest rate expectations being pushed back further and further, and also more alarmingly questions remaining unanswered around whether a possible “Brexit” referendum could still take place later this year.

“The ongoing “Brexit” uncertainty is a real concern because there are so many risks that the UK markets and currency could face over such a huge event that has basically had too many unanswered questions for far too long,” Ahmad added.

Finally, in line with recent trends, Asia Pacific currencies also traded lower versus the greenback. The US currency notched gains of 0.29%, 0.07% and 0.58% versus the Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar and Korean Won, with currencies changing hands to a dollar at SGD$1.4071, TWD$33.2490 and KRW 1,234.36 respectively.

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