OPEC reaffirms 2024 growth projections, offers 2025 guidance

OPEC reaffirmed its projection of robust growth in global oil demand for 2024 on Wednesday, as well as offering an early outlook for 2025, highlighting China and the Middle East as the driving forces behind the surge.

In its monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said global oil demand was expected to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 - a figure consistent with last month's forecast.

For the first time in its monthly reports, however, OPEC predicted a “robust” rise in oil consumption for 2025, estimating an increase of 1.85 million barrels per day.

Reuters said the early release of the 2025 forecast was a departure from OPEC's usual practice, acting as a bid to offer long-term guidance for the energy market.

OPEC explained the strategic shift as a means to “support the understanding of market dynamics”, as it committed to providing stakeholders with a clearer perspective on future oil demand trends.

Reuters also noted that OPEC's projections for 2024 had consistently shown stronger demand growth compared to forecasts from other organisations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Over recent years, OPEC and the IEA have butted heads on various issues, including long-term demand outlooks and the necessity of investments in new oil supplies.

OPEC's report also highlighted an increase in oil production from its members for December, with Nigeria leading the rise.

That occurred despite ongoing production cuts by the wider OPEC+ alliance, aimed at supporting the oil market.

OPEC had also adjusted its production figures to reflect Angola's exit from the group, as announced last month.

Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.