Are analysts being too US-centric? Citi asks

It´s too soon to call time on the global bull market, strategists at Citi said on Friday; nevertheless, they put forward an interesting observation regarding the possible risks to their call.

"Our bear market 'check-list' suggests it is still too early to call the demise of this ageing bull market," the broker´s strategists said.

They went on to explain that only five out of the 18 indicators they followed were in "worrying" territory.

Indeed, the majority of the factors they kept tabs on - 13 out of 18, including global equity valuations and sentiment measures - still looked "reassuring", the broker said.

However, among the reasons why they might be wrong they listed the risk that they were being too US-centric.

Citi also said it was particularly concerned about the widening in US credit spreads.

"Where could we be wrong? Maybe we have not put enough weight on widening credit spreads or our check-list is too US-centric with the next major bear market driven by EM weakness. Only time will tell...," they said.

Not withstanding the above, after the 8% year-to-date drop in global equities and 15% slide since April 2015, they believed it was more likely that investors were facing "another painful correction", as in 2011-12, rather than the beginning of the next major 'bear market', as in 2007-2009.