True number of China coronavirus cases may quadruple official tally

Around 232,000 Chinese are believed to have been infected during the first wave of the Covid-19 coronavirus in China in February, dwarfing an official estimate roughly of 55,000 people.

Research by academics at Hong Kong University’s school of public health found that the true number of infected people in mainland China would have been much larger if the definition of a Covid-19 case finally used had been applied from the start.

The study analysed data available for up to 20 February and estimated that each of the first four changes in case definition had increased the number of cases detected and counted by between 2.8 and 7.1 times.

“If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak with sufficient testing capacity, we estimated that by 20 February 2020, there would have been 232,000 … confirmed cases in China as opposed to the 55,508 confirmed cases reported,” the study said.

China has now reported more than 83,000 cases. Globally, the number of cases worldwide stands at over 2.6m.

The report comes as China’s ambassador to the US called for “a serious rethink of the foundations” of the two countries’ relationship.

Last week, Beijing revealed that the death toll in Wuhan, where the virus is believed to have originated, was in fact 50% higher than first reported.