China GDP just misses estimates, population falls again

China’s economy continued to struggle at the end of last year as it recorded another decline in population and fourth-quarter gross domestic product expanded at 5.2%, just missing estimates of 5.3%.

The population fell to 1.4 billion in 2023, with 11 million deaths and 9 million births as the impact of China’s “one-child” policy continued to filter through and add to pressures from deflation and a property sector slowdown.

In a major data dump, the National Bureau of Statistics said GDP growth for the full year was also 5.2%, compared with a 3% increase in 2022.

Retail sales rose 7.4% in December from a year earlier, missing expectations of 8%. On an annual basis they rose by 7.2%.

Industrial production rose by 6.8% in December from a year earlier, beating forecasts for 6.6% growth.

The statistics bureau also resumed reporting figures on youth unemployment. Excluding students, the unemployment rate for young people aged 16 - 24 was 14.9%, while the rate in cities in December was 5.1%.

Publication of figures had been temporarily suspended last summer, with the NBS citing the need to reassess calculation methods. At the time the unemployment rate had surged to records above 20%.

Reporting by Frank Prenesti for Sharecast.com