China's economy falters as factory output, retail sales fall

China’s economy continued to struggle in November, official data showed on Thursday, with both industrial production and retail sales missing estimates.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output rose 2.2% year-on-year, well below expectations for 3.6%. It was also down significantly on October’s 5.5% gain.

Month-on-month, industrial production fell 0.31% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the weakest since April’s 2.1% decline.

Retail sales, meanwhile, fell by 5.9%, the biggest contraction since May. Analysts had forecast a 3.7% decline following October’s 0.5% fall.

The world’s second-largest economy has been hit by widespread rolling lockdowns this year, as Beijing pursued a policy of zero-Covid, further compounding the impact of weakening global demand and a slowdown in the country's property sector.

Property investment tumbled 19.9% year-on-year in November, following October’s 16% slide, while new home prices fell 0.2% from October, the fourth consecutive decline.

Beijing has since started to move away from zero-Covid, following rare, widespread protests last month.

Duncan Wrigley, chief China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "China’s economic data were weaker than market expectations in November, as Covid cases soared, leading some regions to enforce tough measures.

"Case numbers have continued to increase since then, as local governments moved away from broad zero-Covid policy without a strategy to flatten the curve.

"Industrial activity was hit by operational and logistical snarl ups related to Covid, as well as reduced demand at home and abroad.

"We expect the Chinese economy to remain at a low ebb before it gets better, with exit waves likely to last several months."