Chinese credit growth slows down in October

Chinese credit conditions tightened in October as so-called total social financing expanded by 896.3bn yuan in October, following a surge of 1.72trn in the month before.

Economists had projected a rise of 950bn yuan.

During that same month, local currency loans eased back from 1.22trn yuan in September to 651.3bn yuan in October (consensus: 652bn).

However, in parallel, the year-on-year rate of money supply growth picked up from 11.5% to 11.6% (consensus: 11.4%).

"Looking ahead, we expect broad credit to resume its slowdown slide in coming months, as Chinese policymakers continue to prioritize tackling credit risks over boosting economic activity, which has held up well recently.

"It is possible that the PBOC may reverse course and conduct further policy loosening if faced with the prospect of an external shock such as the imposition of major tariffs by a Trump presidency. But our central view is that the PBOC will refrain from further easing until clear signs of renewed economic weakness emerge, most likely during the middle of next year," Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a research note sent to clients.