Chinese export growth undershoots in June, but import volumes hold up

China's foreign trade surplus widened a tad last month, chiefly as a result of slower export growth, but the underlying picture was somewhat better, some economists judged.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the year-on-year rate of increase in the country's exports dropped from -7.5% to -12.4% (Capital Economics: -10.0%).

In parallel, import growth fell back from -4.5% in May to -6.8% for June (Capital Economics: -3.5%).

Both exports and imports fell by comfortably more than economists were forecasting.

In seasonally and price-adjusted terms however, the decline in exports was only slight, analysts at Capital Economics estimated.

Import volumes meanwhile were little changed, having reached a 23 month-high in May.

Furthermore, Capital Economics's Zichun Huang said that exports would take until the end of 2023 to bottom out, but that recessions in developed economies were likely to be mild.

And imports were likely to pick up over the coming months.

"We expect fiscal stimulus to boost infrastructure spending later this year, supporting commodity imports.

"In addition, as international travel to and from China continues to recover, there is potential for a further increase in fuel imports."