Credit Suisse sees slow recovery in oil, cuts targets

Demand for oil will recover as will prices, but more slowly and from a lower base, creating a challenge for European exploration and production companies, according to new research from Credit Suisse.

“A prolonged downturn as we now envision creates greater challenges to the European E&P sector,” the research team led by Thomas Adolff told clients in a research note.

Credit Suisse lowered its forecast for the “new normal” in the price of oil from to $70 a barrel from $80. Over the long-term, the analysts saw the price of crude at $75 per barrel instead of $85 per barrel.

The analysts lowered their price targets on Cairn Energy to 145p (from 180p), on Genel to 585p (from 685p), on Ophir Energy to 90p (from 125p) and on Tullow Oil to 380p (from 440p).

Nonetheless, funding was more manageable for the companies under its coverage, the broker added. Indeed, value was emerging on select names with “relevant assets”. Such assets would be those which are scalable and on the lower end of the cost curve.

Its preferred stocks were Tullow Oil and Africa Oil, while Cairn Energy and Ophir Energy were their “least preferred”.

Genel also had good assets in the Kurdistan region, the team said, but “the market needs confidence that independent exports can run smoothly at the current run rate and that, even in this pricing environment, payments, despite the KRG's recent commitment, are affordable and sustainable”.

Ophir Energy on the other hand was facing increased uncertainty over demand at a time of volatile and low oil prices, complicating its project development efforts.

This prompted Credit Suisse’s caution on the company’s liquefied natural gas project in Equitorial Guinea and uncertainty surrounding the timeline for a final investment decision on its Tanzanian LNG.