Euro area July CPI confirmed at up by 8.9% on the year and 0.1% month-on-month

Revised data confirmed a modest rise in the cost of living in the euro area last month.

According to Eurostat, in seasonally adjusted terms, the annual rate of increase in the headline Consumer Price Index picked up from 8.6% in June to 8.9% for July.

CPI edged up by 0.1% versus June.

Inflation at the core level meanwhile, which according to the European Central Bank's definition excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices, also gained as previously estimated.

The year-on-year rate of core CPI printed at 4.0%, up from 3.7% in the month before.

In terms of the montly rates of change, processed food, alcohol and tobacco registered the largest price increase, of 1.4%, followed by a 1.2% rise in those of services.

Energy prices meanwhile were up by 0.3%.

Inflation in non-energy industrial goods prices on the other hand came off by 2.2% while the cost of unprocessed food declined by 0.2%.

Commenting on the outlook for euro area inflation, Claus Vistesen, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the behaviour of energy inflation going forwards was subject to "significant uncertainty" with the trend in oil pointing lower but with risks remaining of a complete shutdown in the Nordstream 1 gas pipeline.

Similarly, he believed that core CPI would only slow to 3.5% by end Q1 of 2023.

"These numbers aren’t pretty for the ECB. We think the central bank will lift its deposit and refinancing rates by 50bp in September, followed by 25bp in October and December," he added.

"We then see a pause at the start of the 2023 as growth slows. Risks are firmly titled towards more aggressive tightening, more specifically a 50bp hike in October and hikes extending into 2023."