France's Macron announces candidacy for 2017 presidential race

Former finance minister Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday confirmed his candidacy for France's 2017 presidential election, throwing the race wide open.

Macron quit François Hollande’s Socialist government in August to work on his centrist political party, En Marche, and his decision ends month of speculation on whether he would run.

The former investment banker is pro-business and a reformer of the French economy, but has never held an elected office, although popular amongst the public.

His candidacy is likely to split votes on the centre and left.

Incumbent Hollande, who is widely unpopular with the electorate, is not expected to run again with prime minister Manuel Valls expected to run instead for the Socialists.

A poll by Odoxa in October found that 49% of people thought he would make a good president from the left of centre candidates, while Valls had 42%. Polls have showed that any candidate from the Socialist party would fail to make past the first round of the election.

Macron could erode votes from former prime minister Alain Juppé who is campaigning for the centre-right nomination with Les Republicains.

He could also consolidate chances of far-right Front National’s Marine Le Pen’s chances of reaching the second round, going against either Juppé, former president Nicolas Sarkozy, or François Fillon, who are trying to claim the centre-right ticket.

Le Pen is buoyed by her chances after Donald Trump’s recent election victory and the Brexit vote in June.

However, Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, said the risk that Le Pen will win the presidential election on 7 May still looks small, as it whoever wins the centre-right primaries on 20 and 27 November will be in pole position to be the next French president instead.

“Whereas pro-reform Alain Juppé is significantly more popular than ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy among French voters, most polls suggest that Sarkozy could have an edge over Juppé among core centre-right supporters. The outcome of the primaries remains too close to call.”

Bruno Jeanbert, deputy managing director at OpinionWay told Bloomberg, that a Trump-style victory is less likely in France as the country has a history of protest votes, which pollsters had learnt from.

In 2002, the French rallied to defeat Le Pen's father, Jean-Marie when he reached the run-off. Jacques Chirac won comfortably by 82.2% of the vote.