German IFO business confidence falls to 103.2 in October, well below forecasts

The German IFO Institute’s business climate index for the month of October slipped to a reading of 103.2 from 104.7 in the month before, a 22-month low, with both sentiment surrounding the current situation and the six-month outlook worsening.

The consensus estimate had been for a reading of 104.5.

Assessments of the current business situation in manufacturing were markedly less favourable and are now only marginally above their long-term average, the think-tank said in a statement. Export business expectations were the only area in which manufacturers did express mild confidence.

A sub-index of companies’ expectations retreated to a reading of 98.3 versus 99.3 in September (consensus: 99.3), although the current situation gauge actually improved to 108.4 from 110.4 (consensus: 110).

A barometer of manufacturing sector health dropped to 1.5 from 6.2 in the month before. A gauge of business sentiment in the retail sector also weakened, with a print at -4.6 versus -2.6 in September.