German trade surplus expands as exports jump in November

Germany's trade balance jumped in November after a huge rise in monthly exports smashed economists' expectations.

Germany exported a total of €131.2bn in goods during the month of November on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, up 3.7% from October.

That came after a revised 0.4% decline the month before and was well ahead of the 0.3% increase expected by analysts.

Meanwhile, imports rose 1.9% to €110.8bn, rebounding after a revised 1.1% drop the month before; the consensus estimate was for just a 0.2% rise month-on-month.

The resulting trade balance came in at €20.4bn, up from €17.7bn in October and much higher than the €11.9bn surplus registered in November 2022. Analysts were expecting a figure closer to €17.9bn.

"Mean-reversion will weigh on exports in December and January [...] but unless imports rocket, that shouldn’t change the picture of a chunky gain in net trade, in goods, in Q4," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"The key question for GDP growth, however, is whether this will be offset by a fall in inventories. Some of it will, but not all. We now think the net balance between trade and inventories boosted GDP growth in Q4. As of November, the real trade surplus in goods is on track for a 16% quarter-on-quarter jump in Q4. That’s punchy."