German unemployment still rising despite total employment record

The number of employed rose in Germany in October, albeit marginally, as seasonally-adjusted figures showed a slight uptick in the number of those in work since the summer.

In October, 46.1 million German residents were employed, according to provisional calculations from Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office.

When seasonally adjusted, the number of employed showed a marginal increase of 14,000 from the prior month.

The uptick followed a smaller rise of 3,000 in September, with Destatis noting that since June, seasonally-adjusted employment levels had only seen a slight uptick of 10,000 people.

Without seasonal adjustment, the number of employed in October climbed by 90,000, or 0.2%, compared to September.

Although the month-on-month growth was less pronounced than the 116,000 seen in October last year, it marked a new historical high for total employment.

September had already surpassed the previous record from November 2022’s 45.9 million by 134,000 individuals and topped the 46 million mark for the first time.

Relative to October last year, employment in October showed growth of 0.6%, equivalent to 265,000 individuals.

The year-on-year rate of change also stood at 0.6% in September, down from 1% at the start of the year.

Meanwhile, according to labour force survey results, October saw 1.4 million people unemployed, marking a 66,000 increase, or 4.9% year-on-year.

As a result, the unemployment rate increased to 3.1% from 3.0% in October last year.

When adjusted for seasonal and irregular effects, the number of unemployed individuals in October reached 1.36 million, reflecting an increase of 7,000 from the prior month.

The adjusted unemployment rate remained constant at 3.1% compared to September.

Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that unemployment in Europe’s largest economy was steadily rising.

“The national jobless rate is 0.4 percentage points higher than at the start of the year, driven by an accelerated rise in jobless claims,” Vistesen noted.

“This, in turn, is consistent with an economy teetering on the brink of recession.

“Some of the key surveys have stabilised in recent months, and investor sentiment point to better data in the first quarter, but the economic surveys remain consistent with falling GDP, and an economy losing jobs.”

Claus Vistesen said the PMIs suggested that manufacturing was leading the downturn in the labour market while services were looking more resilient.

“The official employment data, meanwhile, continue to paint a picture of resilience.

“Data for October showed that employment was flat on the month, in seasonally adjusted terms, and up 0.6% year-over-year.

“This in turn indicates that rising unemployment, and specifically rising claims, is driven mainly by a still-solid increase in labour force participation relative to dwindling job openings.”

However, Pantheon believed that employment would fall outright in due course.

Reporting by Josh White for Sharecast.com.