IEA sticks to forecast for slight pick-up in global oil demand for 2019

The rich world's energy watchdog reiterated its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019, even as it highlighted the multiple sources of uncertainty which existed on both the demand and supply sides of the equation.

According to the International Energy Agency's Oil Market Report for January, demand for crude oil worldwide was still to rise by 1.4m barrels a day in 2019, versus the prior year's 1.3m b/d increase, on the back of the drop seen in prices.

Nevertheless, the IEA believed the process of restoring the balance in the oil market would be more a marathon, rather than a sprint.

In that regard, while crude output from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was cut by nearly 600,000 barrels a day in December and Saudi had signaled it was prepared to continue cutting, Russia's production had in fact increased to a new record of bout 11.5m b/d.

According to the IEA, it was not clear whether Moscow was prepared to cut output nor by how much. Other non-OPEC countries who signed-up to the December oil output cut deal also saw higher output, including Mexico, the IEA said.

There was also uncertainty as to the path that Iran's exports - which rose slightly in December to reach 1.3m b/d - would follow and the collapse in Venezuela's production had slowed in the back half of 2018.

Stateside, the IEA forecast liquids output would slow from 2018's sizzling pace of 2.1m b/d to 1.3m b/d.