Mixed Chinese trade data for September

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Sharecast News | 13 Oct, 2015

Updated : 06:53

Overseas sales of Chinese goods continued to recover in September but import volumes missed economists' forecasts.

In local currency terms, exports slipped 1% year-on-year last month and imports by 17.7%, according to the country's customs authorities.

When converted to US dollars export sales were in fact down by 4.5% year-on-year, according to Capital Economics, which was better than the median consensus forecast for a fall of 6%.

The data was also than stronger than it appeared if negative base effects were taken into consideration – shipments were notably strong in the second half of 2014 - the research group said.

"In seasonally adjusted level terms, today’s data are consistent with a continued recovery in exports since the start of the year, when global trade was very weak," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics.

Mixed reaction from economists to import data

In US dollar terms imports shrank at a 20.5% year-on-year clip in September, the think-tank calculated (Capital Economics: -12%).

Although the data hinted at some softening in domestic demand last month, the decline in the headline rate was dragged down by the drop in global commodity prices, overstating the extent of the drops.

"Import volumes are holding up much better," Evans-Pritchard said in a research note sent to clients.

"Looking ahead, we expect stronger growth in China’s main trading partners to shore up exports over the coming quarters while a pick-up in investment spending should boost imports."

But not all economists were quite so upbeat.

"Import numbers are very bad news for countries exporting to China and that's focused on emerging markets in Asia and Latin America,"the global head of FX research at Standard Chartered, Callum Henderson, told CNBC.

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