Morgan Stanley cuts 2023-24 Brent crude oil price forecasts

Analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their price forecasts for Brent crude oil prices across 2023 and for 2024 on the back of higher-than-expected Russian exports.

In a research note sent to clients, they projected that Brent oil would trade in a range between $90-100 per barrel over the back half of 2023, which was down from a prior estimate for a range of $100-110.

Looking out to 2024, Brent was seen trading at $95 per barrel, against $110 a barrel previously.

Key to their forecast revisions, Russian sales overseas of crude and oil products were now seen declining by 400,000 barrels a day in 2023.

That compared to a prior forecast for a roughly 1.0m b/d reduction.

However, global oil demand was now also pegged to grow more quickly, by 1.9m b/d instead of 1.4m b/d, on the back of China's reopening, increased demand from aviation and improved forecasts for gross domestic product growth in 2023.