Netherlands election on 15 March faces extra scrutiny

The Netherlands' election next week will likely produce a coalition government, although the fragile bolting together of parties will remain somewhat vulnerable to populist outfits such as Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom (PVV).

There are 150 seats available in the election, and these will be contested by 28 different parties, with the results traditionally highly fractured and again likely to result in protracted negotiations to form a coalition.

Eight parties are seen winning at least 10 seats, with the Groen Links (Green Party) thought likely to clinch about 20 and Wilders' PVV mob taking about 30, for instance. The end result is seen as a ruling tie-up of nominally pro-EU mainstream parties.

Many parties, including the conservative VVD, have openly said they will not join a coalition with social-media adept Wilders' nationalist and right-wing party, which means he is unlikely to be prime minister.

That makes the spectre of a so-called Nexit -- a Netherlands exit from the EU, and a play on UK's Brexit -- unlikely, according to Schroders' senior European economist, Azad Zangana.

However, concerns are already being floated about the fragility and longevity of such a multi-faceted coalition given the sheer number of parties involved, against a fabric of a rise in populist politics in Europe, UK and US.

"Markets will be patient at first as long as populists are excluded, but extended negotiations could be used to discredit the establishment parties," said strategists at Deutsche Bank.

"A fragile government less able to implement reforms will be less able to curtail the populists as time goes by, particularly if immigration and an unreformed EU remain voter concerns," the bank said.

Coincidentally, Netherlands' election day falls on the same day that the US Federal Reserve issues its decision on interest rates, with markets now widely predicting a rise and looking closely at the accompanying statement to divine the central bank's possible outlook.

The date for Britain's own exit process from the EU has been suggested for mid-March, though Prime Minister Theresa May is felt unlikely to want to trigger Article 50 of the bloc’s governing treaty to kick off two years of separation talks on that same day, although the subsequent days are hotly tipped.

Additional reporting by Maryam Cockar