Netherlands heads to polls for key election amidst Turkey angst

A year of highly significant European elections was kick-started by the Netherlands on Wednesday as its citizens headed to ballot boxes around the country with the continent gripped by a wave of right-wing populism.

The spotlight on the Netherlands has intensified further with the recent breakdown in diplomatic relations with Turkey, following Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reference to the Dutch as “fascists” and “nazis”.

Erdogan’s government imposed diplomatic sanctions on Holland after a decision to prevent Turkish ministers from speaking to the country’s expatriates relating to an upcoming vote on the expansion of the president’s powers.

Geert Wilders’ rise to prominence with the far-right Freedom Party will be one of the main talking points throughout Wednesday, with current Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s People Party expected to stave off the challenge and claim the most seats. With a clear majority practically impossible however, a coalition appears the only way forward considering the presence of 28 different parties contesting just 150 seats in the Dutch parliament.

Polls are expected to close at 20:00 GMT, with counting beginning by hand across the country shortly after.

The election campaign has thus far been fought on major issues such as immigration and the economy, with Wilders suggesting in the last major debate with 12 other party leaders that the rise of radical Islam was “the greatest threat” to the future of the Netherlands.

Opinion polls taken at the eleventh hour suggest that established parties such as the VVD have regained the lead after trailing Wilders’ PVV for large sections of the campaign, but it is expected to be a close race.

Deutsche Bank experts have estimated that the social media-savvy Wilders will just fall short of the figure required for his party to become a mandatory presence in the inevitable coalition.

“Their current opinion polling is around half the 30% our economists think is necessary for the other parties to be unable to ignore them in forming the coalition,” said Deutsche Bank.

“So a Euro friendly coalition is likely but the PVVs success (or lack of it) relative to their recent polling might give us clues as to how pollsters are doing in capturing non-establishment movements after poor performance with Brexit and President Trump.”

Indeed, the Dutch election may provide a key indicator as to how other significant elections in Europe will pan out throughout 2017.

April will see the first round of the French presidential elections, with the National Front’s Marine Le Pen ruffling similar feathers to those flustered by Wilders during this campaign. Further elections in Germany will show whether Angela Merkel can muster up the strength to repel the rising tide of alternative parties.