OPEC holds oil demand forecasts, but lifts GDP outlook

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has maintained its forecasts for global oil demand over the next two years, citing "robust" economic growth that has carried over from 2023.

OPEC still expects demand to rise by 2.2m barrels of oil per day in 2024, and by 1.8m bpd in 2025, unchanged from its earlier projection in February.

It said that demand growth estimates have been revised down for Asia Pacific, due to expected lower performance in the manufacturing and petrochemical sectors of Japan and South Korea. However, this was offset by an upgrade to numbers in India and the Other Asia region.

The cartel also made small upwards adjustments to its global economic activity projections, as stronger-than-expected growth in the US, India and Brazil in the second half of 2023 made up for softening conditions in the eurozone and Japan and steady growth in China and Russia.

OPEC now expects the global economy to expand by 2.8% in 2024, up from an earlier forecast of 2.7%, rising to 2.9% in 2025.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the organisation said there are still upside risks to its forecasts, particularly if inflation eases at a faster rate than currently anticipated. "Additionally, the prospects of a more robust growth trajectory in Asian economies, predominantly India and China, have the potential to provide further impetus to global economic growth in both 2024 and 2025," OPEC said.