OPEC trims oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025

The Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries trimmed its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024.

It said that economic data covering the first quarter, and in some cases the second quarter, as well as a softening in expectations for increased oil demand in the People's Republic of China were responsible.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report for July, the cartel said it anticipated that global oil demand growth of 2.1m barrels a day in 2024 or 135,000 b/d less than it had expected in June.

That, nonetheless, compared to the pre-pandemic historical average of 1.4m b/d of growth.

Non-OECD demand would account for 1.9m b/d of the growth now expected for 2024.

Global oil demand growth in 2025 meanwhile was now expected to be 65,000 b/d less, to reach 1.8m b/d, with non-OECD demand seen 1.7m b/d higher, led by that from China, the Middle East, Other Asia and India.

The supply of liquids by countries which were not signatories of the Declaration of Cooperation was seen rising by 1.2m b/d in 2024, unchanged from June, and by 1.1m b/d in 2025.

Growth in 2024 would come mainly from the US, Canada and Brazil, OPEC said.

Demand for DoC crude in 2024 was revised down by 100,000 b/d to 43.0m b/d and for 2025 by 200,000 b/d to 43.6m b/d.

In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks shrank by 0.1 days in June to stand at 61.2 days or 0.6 days less than the 2015-19 average.