Pound weakens on EU referendum uncertainty as Boris Johnson backs Leave

Sterling fell to a seven-year low on Monday as several leading Tory figures stated their opposition to David Cameron's proposal to remain in a reformed European Union.

Several ministers, including some of the prime minister's closest friends, have so far said they would campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, with London mayor Boris Johnson lending his considerable political weight to the 'leave' campaign.

The fact that Cameron appeared to have been forced to make some concessions with Brussels on several issues left open the question of whether he would be able to sell his compromise as a success to Eurosceptics within his own party, analysts at Natixis said in a research note sent to clients.

"Opinion polls indicate that the outcome of this public consultation could not be more uncertain," Natixis added.

Johnson, seen by some as a contender to lead the Conservative party one day, said on Sunday that he would back those who support an exit from the EU.

“I want a better deal for the people of this country: To save them money and to take back control,” Johnson said.

A poll carried out over the weekend by the Institute of Directors business lobby group found most of its 672 members were in favour of remaining within the European block.

Chancellor George Osborne and Home Secretary Theresa May said they would back Cameron's campaign in favour of remaining within Europe, as did Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

Many analysts still expected Cameron to be able to win voters´ backing for remaining inside a reformed EU, although polls had narrowed noticeably over recent weeks.

Among the signs of worries in the market, the French broker pointed to the widening interest rate spread between European and British investment grade debt as well as weakness in the pound versus the single currency.

As of 09:02 GMT the pound was standing 1.40% lower against the US dollar at 1.4159 and was 0.42% weaker versus the euro at 0.7830, but by noon sterling was down 2.3% to its lowest level since 2009.

The Footsie on the other hand was higher, participating in the continuing rally in global equities, although it was lagging behind its Eurozone peers, registering an advance of 1.22% to 6,022.58, versus a gain of 1.64% for Germany´s Dax.

Benchmark 10-year Gilts were slightly lower, pushing their yield up by two basis points to 1.43%, while Bunds of similar maturity were trading largely unchanged, with their yield flat at 0.20%.

Regarding the possible impact which worries about Brexit might have, Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, said uncertainty in the run-up to the referendum would likely see a "further dislocation" in correlations between UK equities and shares globally, a rare occurrence.

French singled out Centrica, Pearson, Rolls Royce, Prudential and Ashtead as 'safe havens' and Sage, Hammerson, Carnival, Imperial Brands and Easyjet as stocks that might be at risk.

However, Panmure´s chief economist emphasised his "strong view" that the fundamental commercial prospects of none of those firms listed would be altered by the uncertainty ahead of the referendum, although market sentiment might not be so "sanguine".

Likewise, he expected sterling would weaken ahead of the vote on whether to remain inside the EU or not.

However, he added that: "In our view it is a case of opportunistic volatility accompanying the EU referendum rather than an inflection point for sterling.

"Indeed we remain upbeat for the medium term prospects for sterling with resilient macroeconomic data, stable political leadership and a growing working age population all underpinning the attractions of UK assets."