Ten ways markets could surprise us this year - Credit Suisse

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Sharecast News | 20 Jan, 2017

As Donald Trump prepares to pick up the keys to the White House and the Brexit debacles rumbles on, Credit Suisse highlighted 10 ways in which financial markets could surprise us this year, along with its 10 core views.

The S&P 500 hits 2,500 before falling back to 2,000. Core view: the S&P 500 rises to 2,350 mid-year before falling to 2,300.

EURUSD hits 0.90, before strengthening to end the year at 1.20. Core view: Credit Suisse's house view sees the euro declining to 1.03 on a three-month view and down to 1.00 on a 12-month view.

Chinese GDP growth slows to 5% and with it the RMB weakens to 8. Core view: 6.8% GDP growth in 2017 and the RMB drops to 7.33 at year-end.

A victory for Le Pen in France's presidential election. Core view: Francois Fillon becomes President.

European defensives outperform by 15%. Core view: CS is a small ‘underweight’ of defensives, though it did add to them in its outlook.

President Trump's policies disappoint the market. Core view: corporate taxes will be cut, inflation expectations rise and protectionist policies toned down.

The oil price hits $75 a barrel by end 2017. Core view: The oil price will rise to $62 by the end of the year.

The Nikkei rises to 25,000. Core view: CS has a mid-year target for the Nikkei of 20,500.

The European pharmaceuticals sector underperforms by another 10%. Core view: CS is ‘overweight’ pharma and reckons it can outperform modestly from the second quarter.

US 10-year Treasury yields hit 4%. Core view: CS US rates strategists have a 3% year-end target.

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