UK consumer confidence near historic low, GfK says

Britons' outlook for the economy sank to its lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis, the results of a closely-followed survey revealed.

Consultancy GfK's consumer confidence index for Britain slipped by seven points in April from the month before to reach a reading of -38.0.

Economists had penciled-in a print of -33.0.

"The cost crunch is really hitting the pockets of UK consumers and the headline confidence score has dropped to a near historic low," said Joe Staton, client strategy director at GfK.

A sub-index tracking views on the economy 12 months out meanwhile retreated by six points to a reading of -55.0.

For their part, economists at Bank of America emphasised the "reliability" of consumer confidence as a signal for where consumption was heading.

Simply put, "consumers have a good nose for how their financial situation is changing," they said.

What's more, they estimated that at its present level consumer confidence was pointing to 35.0% odds of a recession, although they pointed out that other survey results were stronger.

Indeed, the Bank of America economists said they weren't as downbeat either.

"We do not forecast a recession because surveys of firms remain stronger while consumers can draw down the saving rate to buffer some fall in income. But consumer confidence suggests the downside risks are large."

-- More to follow --