US consumer confidence falls for a second straight month in September

Americans' short-term confidence fell back for a second consecutive month in September amid the recent increase in petrol prices and weakness in the stock market.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped from a reading of 146.7 for August to 147.1 in September.

All of the decline was the result of a drop in the sub-index tracking short-term expectations for income, business conditions and the jobs market from 83.3 to 73.7.

Worth noting, the 80 point level on that sub-index was historically linked to a recession over the following year.

The President Situation Index on the other hand ticked up by 0.4 points to 147.1.

As the survey compiler pointed out: "Consumer fears of an impending recession also ticked back up, consistent with the short and shallow economic contraction we anticipate for the first half of 2024."

Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, also noted how many consumers' responses had alluded to the political situation and higher interest rates.

For his part, Kieran Clancy, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "The second straight drop in the consumer confidence index largely reflects the ongoing rise in gasoline prices, which are up by nearly a tenth since May.

"The drop in the S&P 500 since the end of July hasn’t helped either. This, in turn, is putting the brakes on the recovery in consumers’ confidence which began in the summer of 2022.

"[...] That said, the expectations index is still consistent with a modest acceleration in consumers’ spending growth."