US December jobs report: analysts' reactions

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Sharecast News | 09 Jan, 2016

"Yet more evidence that manufacturing and oil sector weakness is not enough to depress the overall economy. Don't fret over the zero hourly earnings number; it is due to a well-established calendar quirk, which depresses reported wages in months - like Dec - when the 15th (payday for people paid semi-monthly) falls outside the survey week. We continue to expect the next hike in March, with the Fed likely to raise rates by 150bp over the course of this year as wage gains accelerate beyond their comfort point." - Pantheon Macroeconomics

"This employment report, combined with the very low level of initial claims, suggests that labor market momentum remains firmly in place. If so, history suggests that US economic data are likely to improve in the near term. In particular, we do not believe consumption growth of 2.0% is consistent with the robust employment gains of the past few months. Nevertheless, trends in private consumption growth and other components of domestic demand bear further watching, particularly if labor markets were to slow in the months ahead or if the headwinds from abroad were to intensify substantially." - Barclays

"We stick to our call that the Fed will hike three times this year despite the strong employment growth. Although today's jobs report increases the probability that the next hike will be in March, we think the Fed will be on hold until April. While the strong labour market is key to understanding why the Fed has begun tightening monetary policy, the Fed has communicated that it would like to see more underlying inflationary pressure before tightening too much too quickly." - Danske Bank

"Ultimately, we believe that wage growth will accelerate and inflation will pick up, ensuring that the federal funds target rate rises much further than is generally anticipated. We expect it to increase to between 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of this year, and then to a range of 3.25% to 3.50% by end-2017." - Capital Economics

“In the wider context of high job vacancies and low rates of initial jobless claims, this month’s report supports the Fed’s view of the economy. If the labour market continues functioning this well, the Fed will have good reason to stick to its plan to raise rates several more times in 2016, despite this week’s angst about China.” - Monex Europe

"This report will swing the pendulum back towards another increase on 16 March, the next but one Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Alongside future employment reports, two factors, one domestic and one external, will be critical. On the domestic front, we would look for evidence that the manufacturing sector is stabilising. On the external side we are back to China." - Schroders

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