US missile treaty withdrawal could aggravate tensions with China

US President Donald Trump’s threats to pull out from a nuclear arms treaty with Russia could open new options to counter Chinese advances in missile technology but may also risk an arms race that would further escalate tensions with the Asian giant.

The US recently threatened to pull out from the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces treaty with Russia that according to Reuters, US officials had been complaining about for years, claiming it put the country at a disadvantage from China’s development of highly sophisticated land-based missile forces, because Beijing was not a signatory.

Trump also accused Russia of “violating the agreement” and building intermediate-range conventional and nuclear weapons: “You can’t do that. You can’t play that game on me,” he said over the weekend.

On Tuesday, the Kremlin admitted the treaty has some flaws but considered it a mistake to scrap the deal altogether without proposing a replacement.

Under the treaty, both sides committed to ditching short and intermediate range nuclear and conventional missiles but, again, America's complaint now was that China was not bound by a similar treaty.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing on Monday: "I want to stress that it is completely wrong to use China as an excuse for pulling out of the treaty. We hope relevant countries can cherish the hard-won achievements over the years, prudently and properly handle issues related to the treaty through dialogue and consultation, and think twice about withdrawing from the treaty."

Dan Blumenthal, a former Pentagon official now at the American Enterprise Institute, told Reuters a withdrawal could see the US place missiles in the likes of Guam and Japan which would make it harder for China to consider a conventional first strike against US ships and bases in the region.

It could also force Beijing into a costly arms race and might entail ratcheting-up tensions that were already high on the back of the ongoing trade war.

However, other observers believed that there were alternatives available for countering threats from China without scuttling a key arms control deal which might unwittingly leave the door wide open for the Kremlin to justify deploying as many such arms as it wanted in the European or Asian theatres.

Nevertheless, on 4 October, US Defence Secretary, James Mattis, said Russian development of the 9M729 intermediate range cruise missile was in direct violation of the INF treaty and was "untenable", warning that America would be forced to match its capabilities if Russia did not return to its treaty obligations.

Moscow had denied such allegations in the past, while alleging that some of the US missile defense systems which had been deployed were themselves in violation of the pact.

Trump told reporters late on Monday that the US would outspend any other country in building up its nuclear arsenal: "We have more money than anybody else, by far. We’ll build it up. Until they come to their senses. When they do, then we’ll all be smart and we’ll all stop."