US recession fears rise to 2011 highs, CNBC survey reveals

The odds of the US falling into a recession had risen to their highest in four years, according to the results of CNBC’s Fed survey, published on Monday.

According to the poll, respondents had grown increasingly fearful of such an outcome for a sixth month in row, putting the chances of the American economy falling back into contraction at 28%.

However, for the moment, while weakness was evident so far it was not sufficient to bring economic growth tumbling down, CNBC said.

Although factory activity was shrinking, exports weak and corporate profits were said to be in a ‘recession’ the consumer was strong, as were job growth and the service sector.

In its report the broadcaster also pointed a finger towards the reduced spread between two and ten year US Treasury note yields, which at 118 basis points was at its lowest since the last recession.

Nontheless, the spread only signaled recession when it was at zero so at present it was "softer, but not soft enough to signal recession", CNBC said.