US retail sales jump past forecasts in September

Retail sales in the U.S. jumped past forecasts last month.

According to the Department of Commerce, in seasonally adjusted terms retail sales volumes jumped at a month-on-month clip of 0.7% in September (Consensus: 0.3%) to reach $704.9bn.

Net revisions to previous months' data amounted to three tenths of a percentage point.

Excluding automobiles retail sales were up by 0.6% (consensus: 0.2%).

Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers were ahead by 1.0%, alongside increases of 0.8% at health and personal care stores and of 0.9% at gasoline stations.

Non-store retailers meanwhile saw sales increase by 1.1% and food services and drinking places by 0.9%.

The so-called retail sales control group meanwhile, which feeds directly into GDP estimates, saw a rise of 0.6% (consensus: 0.0%).

On the back of Tuesday's report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macroeconomics estimated that real consumption outlays likely grew at a 4% annualised pace across the third quarter, while the control group was ahead by 6.4% in quarterly annualised terms.

"The strength in third quarter consumption spending is hard to square with the jump in student loan repayments ahead of the official October 1 deadline, and the ongoing depletion of excess savings accumulated during Covid," he added.

"At the same time, most of the effects of the Fed’s tightening to date has yet to be fully felt by the consumer sector."