LSE-Deutsche Boerse tie-up may be on the ropes

Chances are the mooted tie-up between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse will not go ahead as planned following the UK´s vote to leave the European Union, according to some financial market measures.

The average estimate from 25 event-driven desks, equity analysts and fund managers surveyed by Bloomberg pegged the odds of the deal finally going through at just 26.0%.

An alternative measure, derived from both companies´ share price would place the probablity of such an event at approximately 39.0%.

On 28 June, the chief of Germany´s financial markets regulator, known as Bafin, questioned if it made sense for the head office of the combined company to be located outside the European Union.

“Without doubt […] it is hard to imagine that the most important exchange venue in the Eurozone would be steered from a headquarters outside the EU. There certainly has to be an adjustment here.”

As of 13:15 BST shares in Deutsche Boerse were off by 1.45% to €72.62 in Frankfurt trading while LSE stock was changing hands 0.92% lower at 2,469p.