Market buzz: US consumer confidence at 2000 high, 'keep calm' on Italian election

1700: Ten-year US Treasury note yields have popped higher. Significantly, in response to a question from one of the Congressmen, Fed chair Powell stated that: "My personal outlook for the economy has strengthened since December."

1640: Don't worry about the Italian election, says Citi, offering its "humble suggestion... to stop reading stuff (apart from this quick note of course) and quietly wait for March 5th".

Analysts said they think that the combination of the technicalities of the Rosatellum along with the large number of undecided voters make historically already unreliable polls even less reliable.

"Whatever 'experts' might say this week, it is highly unlikely to be accurate next week. Also, considering 'revolving doors' (habit of MPs of changing party), votes have to be both counted and weighted to understand what’s next. For those bold enough to keep reading this quick note, a recap of our thinking might be useful:We believe that, after having scared investors in 2016, Italian politics has become somewhat irrelevant as investors (correctly) no longer fear an Italexit."

1521: Conference Board's consumer confidence index hit its highest level since November 2000 last month, rising from 124.3 for December to 130.8 in January (consensus: 126.0).

Speaking of 2000 (despite the bad memories), analysts at Citi are highlighting their recent upgrade of Intel shares to a 'buy', telling clients they expect it to be the 'Micron of 2017'. A recovery in the enterprise end market - which accounts for half of the chipmaker's sales - will drive consensus estimates higher for Intel "We believe Intel's combination of very low sentiment and substantial upside to Consensus is similar to Micron in 2017 [...] The enterprise end market drove upside to Intel in 4Q17 and we believe it will be sustainable in 2018 driven by the improving economy and increased spending from tax reform."

1511: Commenting on Powell's remarks, Andrew Hunter at Capital Economics said: "Although he avoided dropping any heavy hints, the upbeat tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's first semi-annual congressional testimony today suggests that a March rate hike is, as futures markets believe, a near-certainty.

"[...] That said, we continue to expect the Fed to hike rates four times this year, rather than the three that most officials had previously pencilled in, taking it to between 2.25% and 2.50% by end-2018."

1449: Here's a take on the technical backdrop for Sky and 21st Century Fox from our chief technical analyst, Jose Maria Rodriguez.

Sky: "Having taken out their highs from 2015 at 1,180p, now support, the shares may be headed towards the upper part of the upwards- sloping price channel they are in, which at the moment comes in at about 1,840p. Primary support comes in at the base of the channel at 862p."

21st Century Fox: "February's large share price fall took the form a textbook 'throwback' in the shares to the upper bound of the price channel which had been guiding the stock higher. At present, everything seems to point to a retest of the 2014 highs at $39.27 with no resistance on the horizon above that - with all that this implies."

1416: In prepared remarks for his semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services committee, the Fed's Jerome Powell appears to be striking a balance between pointing to continuity with his predecessors and a slightly less hawkish take on then current inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's policy bias. S&P 500 futures down 3 points to 2,781.50. 10-year Tsy yield off 1bp at 2.86%.

1415: Shares of 21st Century Fox are changing hands 0.64% lower at $38.56, Walt Disney down -1.69% to $107.95, Comcast off 3.99% at $38.

1412: The dollar is up after prepared remarks were published from new Fed chair Jerome Powell. The dollar index is back up over 90 and cable is down 0.4% to $1.3917.

1346: Barclays has upgraded Ascential to 'equal weight' after better-than-expected 2018 guidance yesterday and the likelihood of more portfolio change. The shares were up 6% yesterday but the analysts were impressed by management confidence for better organic growth in 2018, hopes for Cannes Lions of "only a fairly modest year-on-year decline" and the exhibitions unit's strategic review that "could create new headroom for inorganic reinvestment". A sum-of-the-parts price target moves to 395p.

1305: Craig Wright, the computer scientist that has been suggested as one of the developers behind the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym that created bitcoin and the blockchain technology, is being sued for $5bn. The suit is brought to the United States District Court of the Southern District of Florida by the estate of David Kleiman, reports CoinTelegraph

In documents which surfaced on Reddit, the plaintiff claims that Wright stole hundreds of thousands of BTC from David Kleiman’s estate, worth over $5 bln dollars at recent rates, though this could halve or double in coming weeks. The statement by the plaintiff alleges that Wright recognized that Kleiman’s friends and family were initially unaware of the wealth he accumulated.

In documents which were posted on Reddit, it has been claimed that Wright stole hundreds of thousands of BTC from David Kleiman’s estate, worth over $5 bln dollars at recent rates, though this could halve or double in coming weeks.

1227: Sky out with a statement: "Since no firm offer has been made at this point, shareholders are advised to take no action."

Adds: "The Independent Directors of Sky are mindful of their fiduciary duties and their obligations under the UK Takeover Code."

The FTSE 100 sank into the red just before midday and is vacillating either side of the flat line over the last couple of hours.

1115: UK economic sentiment has dipped, according to the European Commission. The EC's Economic Sentiment Indicator for the UK fell to 109.5 in February from 111.1 in January. The ESI was dragged down in February by a decline in confidence in the industrial sector to its lowest level since April, note economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Confidence in all other sectors of the economy improved, notably in the services sector where sentiment rose to its highest level since December 2015. "This tentatively suggests that the economy is coping well with the prospect of higher interest rates and that the below-consensus run of activity data over the last month is just a blip," Pantheon said.

0959: Analysts at M&A specialists Olivetree Financial said all signs point to Comcast's bid for Sky being "genuinely in competition with Fox & Disney", with the market "right to be pricing in real competitive tension now". Comcast's bid should be very 'clean' from an antitrust point of view, with the 50% acceptance showing that they are happy to own the asset alongside Fox / Disney. "Whether Fox/Disney are happy to do the same remains to be seen."

After previous press reports that Comcast tried to buy Fox’s asset package but was defeated by a more deliverable Disney, Olivetree said the nature of today’s statement "shows that Comcast do have a genuine desire to own Sky and they think Disney do too".

"We have all been musing for some weeks as to whether Disney REALLY wanted Sky, or whether in reality it just came as part of a bigger package – the structure of Comcast’s offer would seem to suggest they really do. Not only is it now clear that Comcast obviously want to own Sky, that they have conditioned their approach on 50% acceptance suggests that they don’t expect Fox to tender, suggesting that Disney really want the asset. The body-language here says there is real competitive tension for Sky. Comcast’s timing is interesting, it allows them to start their regulatory filings, which could well conclude at a similar point to a Fox transaction being put in front of Sky shareholders."

0945: An update from parliament's influential Treasury Committee about RBS's GRG. During RBS’ oral evidence session with the Treasury Committee last month, RBS was asked what proportion of the staff at a senior manager grade and above at RBS Restructuring previously worked at RBS’ Global Restructuring Group, its unit for handling troubled businesses between 2007 and 2013 that was replaced by RBS Restructuring in 2014.

RBS has today provided the Treasury Committee that 136 of 182 of current RBS Restructuring employees previously worked in RBS’ GRG and that 30 of the 32 current employees at senior manager grade or above previously worked in GRG. RBS boss Ross McEwan has also revealed that £1m has been paid out in direct loss claims. On current trends, it will pay out under £5m in direct loss claims in total.

MP Nicky Morgan, chair of the committee, said: “Mr McEwan has assured the Committee that the culture at RBS Restructuring is fundamentally different from that of GRG.

“The discovery that almost all the senior management in the new unit previously worked at GRG raises concerns that there has merely been a rebranding exercise.

“I have asked Mr McEwan to set out how the training programme and performance objectives of these staff have been developed to address the toxic culture described in the promontory report.”

0815: Sky and Persimmon are the top risers on the FTSE 100 as the index edges up 14 points to just over 7,300 this morning, with Fresnillio the bottom of the list.

In a financial PR coup, Provident Financial is higher after it announced a £371m rights issue, smaller than the £500m reported over the weekend, as its Vanquis Bank was ordered by the financial regulator to pay a £2m fine and almost £170m in compensation to customers over misselling of 'repayment option plan' product.

Persimmon is up as it unveiled a bumper dividend plan for this and the next two years as it reported profits growth and encouraging recent sales.

0756: US broadcasting giant Comcast has tabled a rival $31bn bid for Sky, in a direct challenge to Rupert Murdoch's Fox.America's largest cable TV operator offered £12.5 for the British outfit, trumping Fox's offer of £10.75 per share.

0710: Tuesday's newspaper round-up includes criticism from senior Conservative MP Nicky Morgan over the government's failing to make progress on a transition deal to smooth Britain’s exit from the EU, warning that businesses could relocate jobs outside of the UK without urgent action. There's also news on the government’s energy price cap, Aston Martin and Carillion.