Asia: Japan rebounds, China holds breath ahead of HSBC PMI
Tokyo: Nikkei +0.03%
Hong Kong: Hang Seng +0.15%
Shanghai Composite -0.23%
Mumbai: Sensex -0.40%
Asian indices were mostly up, led by Thai and Indonesian equities with the Hang Seng also a strong performer.
However, North Asian equities were softer, led by a weak Shanghai performance as China prepares for HSBC's flash purchasing managers index report on Thursday. India's Sensex fell in profit taking on Wednesday after hitting another new high the day before.
Japanese export growth was up 3.9% year-on-year in July, more than forecast and coming after two successive negative rates in May and June.
Berenberg noted that the sharp output contraction in the second quarter looked to have rebounded, with this first hard data for the third quarter pointing to a positive start.
"The improvement could be an indication that important markets like China and the US are picking up, helping Japanese companies to capitalise on the weak yen, which is roughly 25% lower against the dollar than before the start of Abenomics in late 2012," the bank's analysts wrote.
Slowing import growth could point to a positive contribution from net exports, but could also be a sign of subdued domestic demand.
"We expect the momentum of the monetary and fiscal stimulus to tide the economy over the impact of the tax increase in April and temporarily sluggish export markets. But the impact will fade and could end as an expensive flash in a pan, if the government does not implement serious structural reforms to boost the long-term growth potential."
China, Thailand and India
In the medium term, analysts at Capital Economics expect China's stock market to perform quite poorly given the prospect of slower, albeit potentially better-balanced, growth.
"But there are plenty of countries in the region that are not especially vulnerable to a decline in China's demand for commodities and should benefit from a continued recovery in the global economy. These include South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Malaysia.
"Thailand is a bit more of a wildcard despite encouraging signs that the military coup is bringing some stability."
In Thailand, analysts expect new president-elect Joko Widodo's win to soon be confirmed by constitutional court decision.
India also has a new government, with investors watching to see if it can press ahead with its reform agenda. Schroders anticipates policy tightening in the country, for one, and many local analysts expect governmental reforms and increasing global liquidity to fuel a continued rally in 2014.
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