London close: Stocks rally on poll results, but some analysts unconvinced

Stocks in London finished near their best levels of the day, alongside the largest one-session gain for the pound since 2008, as polls showing the 'Remain' campaign was in the lead wrong-footed some investors.

The FTSE 100 finished 182.91 points or 3.04% higher at 6,204.00, led higher by gains in financials such as Hargreaves Lansdown and Lloyds together with housebuilders, including Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments.

Against the US dollar, the pound was gaining 2.19% to 1.4676. In parallel, front month Brent crude futures gained 2.48% to $50.42 per barrel on the ICE. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Gilt closed nine basis points higher to 1.236%.

Over the weekend, a Survation poll in the Daily Mail revealed that support for the ‘Remain’ campaign was in the lead at 45.0% versus 42.0% for ‘Leave’, while two YouGov polls – one for ITV's Good Morning Britain and one for the Sunday Times – both showed Remain in front.

In addition, a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror revealed the percentage of people saying they’d be relieved if the UK stayed in the EU rose to 45% after the murder of MP Jox Cox, from 35% before.

Paddy Power said that, by 1430 BST on Monday, Remain was trading at odds that implied an 80% chance, thanks to more than 10 five-figure bets over the weekend, with more than 70% of the total money the bookmaker has taken being for Remain so far.

However, some in the City have suggested heavy betting money indicating a strong Remain win are "wishful thinking".

Schoders multi-manager head Marcus Brookes pointed out that, as polling data suggests City workers overwhelmingly support Remain, "it might be they found the evidence that supported their own view - known as confirmation bias - choosing the betting exchange view over the polls. Recent data seems to suggest that the polling data might prove to be a better guide this time."

BT Group, TalkTalk jump

"With growing mobile data usage, we see mobile as an essential utility," UBS analyst Polo Tang said in a research note sent to clients. In case of 'Bremain', Tang expected a rebound in the likes of Sky, BT and TalkTalk. Those UK-centric three names had already underperformed going into the EU referendum (although they were relatively resilient operationally in the last downturn), he said.

Heavily indebted North Sea oil producer EnQuest has denied media reports that it is in talks with the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OAG) about contingency plans. The government body fears insolvencies at Enquest and mid-cap peer Premier Oil, the Sunday Telegraph reported, and is mulling plans "to guard against a North Sea bankruptcy crisis" as the pair are "wracked with debt following the oil market rout and now stand at the mercy of their lenders".

Gemfields, a British supplier of responsibly sourced coloured gemstones, reported record total revenues of $44.3m at a recent auction of rough rubies in Singapore as the increasing quality of Mozambique gems attracts growing demand.

Shares in biopharmaceutical development company Circassia Pharmaceuticals plummeted on Monday morning, after it announced disappointing top-line results from its investigational cat allergy immunotherapy phase III study.

Hammerson said it has exchanged contracts and completed the sale of Thurrock Shopping Park, Essex, to TH Real Estate for £93m. The sale price represents a net initial yield of 5.3% and is moderately below the book value as at 31 December 2015, Hammerson said.
Late-stage drug trials by GlaxoSmithKline on its treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have proved successful. The Phase III clinical testing by GSK and project partner Innoviva delivered data that is likely to support European regulatory submission by the end of 2016.

FTSE 250 precision instruments maker Spectris has completed the acquisition of the software and associated assets of privately-held software solutions company Capstone Technology Corp for $22.5m. Capstone comprises two key software platforms: the MACS software suite providing engineering services and software for advanced process control optimisation and dataPARC, which is a data historian, visualisation and analytics software suite for operational decision support.

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 6,204.00 3.04%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 16,953.19 3.23%
techMARK (TASX) 3,052.33 2.91%

FTSE 100 - Risers

Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) 1,328.00p 8.06%
Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) 70.00p 7.61%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group (RBS) 237.70p 7.02%
Taylor Wimpey (TW.) 188.00p 6.82%
Barclays (BARC) 176.85p 6.70%
Barratt Developments (BDEV) 567.00p 6.68%
St James's Place (STJ) 878.00p 6.55%
Dixons Carphone (DC.) 420.60p 6.16%
Sainsbury (J) (SBRY) 245.70p 6.09%
International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (CDI) (IAG) 507.00p 6.00%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Randgold Resources Ltd. (RRS) 6,515.00p -1.44%
Rexam (REX) 626.50p -0.48%
Fresnillo (FRES) 1,224.00p -0.24%
Carnival (CCL) 3,427.00p 0.73%
SABMiller (SAB) 4,293.00p 0.88%
Shire Plc (SHP) 4,010.00p 1.37%
HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 437.35p 1.43%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 3,848.00p 1.45%
Unilever (ULVR) 3,116.50p 1.55%
BP (BP.) 378.95p 1.55%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Shawbrook Group (SHAW) 275.80p 14.92%
Evraz (EVR) 123.00p 12.74%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 68.95p 8.33%
Aldermore Group (ALD) 206.00p 7.85%
Paragon Group Of Companies (PAG) 297.00p 7.80%
Redrow (RDW) 406.10p 7.66%
NCC Group (NCC) 268.70p 7.48%
National Express Group (NEX) 314.50p 7.37%
JD Sports Fashion (JD.) 1,329.00p 7.26%
Bovis Homes Group (BVS) 995.50p 7.22%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Circassia Pharmaceuticals (CIR) 87.20p -67.74%
IP Group (IPO) 161.70p -3.46%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 110.30p -0.81%
AO World (AO.) 155.80p -0.32%
BH Macro Ltd. GBP Shares (BHMG) 1,945.00p -0.10%
Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) 135.80p -0.07%
UK Commercial Property Trust (UKCM) 76.85p -0.07%
Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 346.90p -0.03%
Millennium & Copthorne Hotels (MLC) 430.00p -0.00%
Vectura Group (VEC) 157.00p -0.00%