Europe midday: Stocks waver as jitters set in ahead of US election

European stocks wavered in a tight range as investors opted for caution ahead of the US presidential election.

At midday, the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index was flat, Germany’s DAX was down 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 was 0.1% lower.

Meanwhile, oil prices were steady after OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo said at a conference in Abu Dhabi that members of the cartel will come to an agreement in Vienna later this month to curb output.

West Texas Intermediate was down 0.1% to $44.84 a barrel and Brent crude was flat at $46.16.

IG’s Joshua Mahony said: “The reality has hit home today, after yesterday’s carefree exuberance almost made us believe the election was already over. Today sees all other concerns thrown out the window as we hunker down for a historic night that will likely dictate market sentiment for the remainder of this year. After the FBI cleared Clinton for a second time, we have seen a substantial shift in both polls and market expectations towards there being a woman in the White House for the first time history. The IG binary market currently prices an 81.5% chance that Hillary Clinton will win, up from the 74% seen over the weekend.

“Despite the widespread clues that we could see a Clinton victory, the hesitance seen within financial markets this morning is a clue that perhaps investors are becoming a little wary of relying too much on pollsters after the referendum result. Elections are often decided by the swing voters, yet in such a divisive election, perhaps it will instead be down to turnout, particularly amongst the Latin (who typically have low turnout) and black communities.”

According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Hillary Clinton currently has a three-point lead over rival Donald Trump.

In corporate news, Marks & Spencer erased earlier gains after the retailer held its interim dividend as first-half profits fell almost 19%, with new chief executive Steve Rowe announcing a £350m investment plan to close 113 stores in the UK and overseas markets to try and return the retailer to profitable growth.

Credit Agricole rallied after it said net profit in the third quarter doubled, while Henkel advanced as its third-quarter profit beat analysts’ expectations.

Deutsche Post was also in the black after it posted a jump in third-quarter profit and said it was on track to meet its full-year targets.

Direct Line Group edged higher after it said gross written premiums for ongoing operations rose 4.2% in the nine months to the end of September with continued growth in Motor own brands, up 9.7%.

Primark owner Associated British Foods rallied as it reported a rise in full-year revenue and profit.

On the downside, steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal slumped as it cautioned that a sharp rise in coal prices would hit earnings in the fourth quarter.

FTSE 100 tobacco company Imperial Brands fell after it reported a drop in profit for the year to end of September, but said revenue rose and upped its dividend by 10%.

Data from Destatis did little to lift the mood on Tuesday, as it showed total German industrial output dropped 1.8% on the month in September, with manufacturing output down 1.7% and construction output down 1.5%. Analysts had been expecting a smaller drop of 0.6% in total output.

Meanwhile, the adjusted trade surplus in Germany came in lower than expected at €21.3bn.