Brexit poll from Ipsos Mori shows Remain retake lead, pound resurges

An EU referendum opinion poll from Ipsos Mori before voting stations opened on Thursday showed that the Vote Remain campaign had held onto its lead.

The phone poll for the Evening Standard newspaper found 52% support for Remain, up five percentage points, versus 48% for Leave as the pro-Brexit camp lost five points.

Ipsos stressed that this was not an exit poll.

The pound was up 1.15% to 1.4876 against the dollar, extending its six-month high, and up 0.3% against the euro at 1.3058.

Stocks were also surging, with the FTSE 100 up 1.5% to a two-month high of 6,355.05, helped by earlier supportive news for the Remain campaign.

Bookmaker Betfair said the odds of a Remain vote in the EU referendum had risen to 84% from 76% overnight.

The implied probability of Brexit shifted from 22.7% to 17.2% in the space of a few minutes earlier on Thursday, the bookie said.

“Strength in UK equities and sterling - both holding up around recent recovery highs - suggests confidence that a Remain vote will prevail," said analyst Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets.

"However, opinion polls remain extremely tight - more to come today - meaning it's 'squeaky-bum time' for all those involved in financial markets right through til the early hours of tomorrow morning."

Analyst Jasper Lawler at CMC Markets said: ""Investors who wanted to protect their portfolio against adverse moves in sterling or other UK assets will have done so already. With a slight bias to a Remain vote, there is no need for any additional hedging trades and the lighter volume suggests day traders are sitting on their hands until the result is out."