Brexit poll sends pound reeling
The 'Leave' camp was continuing to build momentum going into the final fortnight ahead of the referendum on the UK's continued membership of the European Union, according to the results of the latest poll published on Friday evening, which sent the pound reeling.
Of the 2,000 people canvassed by ORB, a full 55.0% said they were now backing the option to leave the EU, against 45.0% who aid they were supporting 'Remain'.
ORB's last such poll, the results of which had been adjusted to take into account how likely people were to vote, had put suport for 'Leave' at 51.0% and for 'Remain' at 49.0%.
The resulting ten point lead for 'Leave' was "by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the issue for The Independenent twelve months ago.
According to the pollster, 56.0% of Labour voters at the last national elections had thrown their hat in with 'Remain' as opposed to 38.0% for Tory voters - with support greatest in Scotland.
Howeverm in one "crumb" of good news for 'Remain', a small majority of 52.0% still appeared to think 'Remain' would come out ontop, with 'Leave' expected to garner 48.0% of the vote.
News of the poll's results on Friday evening saw the pound weaken by 1.39% to end the day at 1.4253.
Commenting on the Brexit debate, Erik F.Nielsen, chief economist at UniCredit Research, on Sunday told clients that: "My point is this: Brexit will be a disaster for the UK well beyond issues of trade and investment vis-à-vis the EU – and both short- and longer term (if Brexit, we’ll revise our UK GDP forecast to show recession in 2017, followed by a slower trajectory) while the rest of Europe will suffer short-term.
"Longer term, the EU-27 will all depend on the policy reaction (there’ll be a special summit – excluding the UK – already on June 28-29 to discuss the approach.) Further integration is inevitable. At a minimum, it’ll include defence and security, as already discussed, but my money would be on closer economic policy making as well, probably along the lines suggested by French governor Villeroy de Galhau (which I discussed two weeks ago.)."