Brexit possibility the highest since referendum was called

The probability that Britain will vote to leave the European Union rose to 36% on Monday, the highest level since the referendum was announced in February.

The odds changed when a poll by ORB commissioned by The Independent said the Leave campaign was 10 points ahead of Remain at 55%, last Friday.

According to Betfair, a bookmaker, that saw the probability of a vote to stay in the EU fell to about 64%, down around 14 points from last Thursday when it was at 78%.

The highest level for betting odds that Britain will leave the EU was back in April when US president Barack Obama intervened and said the UK would be “at the back of the queue” in any post referendum negotiations with the US.

Bookmaker William Hill offered odds of 7/4 or 36% probability of Britain voting for Brexit, and a 4/9 or 69% probability of a Remain vote.

William Hill Spokesman Graham Sharpe said: “We had to halve our odds on Monday morning for a Brexit result.

“Political punters betting with William Hill that the EU referendum will produce a Leave/Brexit outcome have forced the odds down to their shortest level since the date of the vote was confirmed back in February.”

In May, pollsters failed to predict a Conservative party majority in the general election and the election of Jeremy Corbyn as Labour party leader.

With 10 days to go till the EU referendum on the 23 June the UK’s 10-year gilt yields have fallen to 1.2%, an all time low, due to expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates and start a bond-buying programme to avoid any risk of the financial system freezing-up.