Government spending third highest on record for September

The government borrowing figure for last month was the third-highest September figure since monthly records began in January 1993, according to data released on Tuesday by the Office for National Statistics.

Borrowing - which is the difference between public sector spending and income - came in at £16.6bn, up £2.1bn on the same month a year ago. The figure was higher than the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast of £15.1bn but below the consensus forecast of £17.4bn.

The figures showed that borrowing in the year to September was £79.6bn, up £1.2bn on the same point last year and the third highest year-to-September borrowing since monthly records began.

Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "Overall, today’s release means borrowing is on track to overshoot the OBR’s 2024/25 forecast of £87.2bn by £6.6bn. This demonstrates the constraints on the Chancellor’s ability to increase day-to-day spending in the Budget next week without raising taxes.

"Indeed, we expect her to increase current (i.e. excluding investment) spending by a net £25bn a year and to fund that by raising taxes by £25bn. However, if the Chancellor changes the measure of debt her fiscal rule targets, she may be able to borrow to increase public investment by up to £53bn. For what it’s worth, we think she will raise borrowing and public investment by £18bn in 2029/30."