UK grocery sales to hit a record £13bn in December

UK grocery sales are expected to top £13bn in December for the first time ever on the back of rising prices and Christmas celebrations, according to market research agency Kantar.

The prediction comes after sales increased by 6.3% over the four weeks to 26 November to £11.7bn.

"The scene is set for record-breaking spend through the supermarket tills this Christmas," said Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar.

"The festive period is always a bumper one for the grocers with consumers buying on average 10% more items than in a typical month. Some of the increase, of course, will also be driven by the ongoing price inflation we’ve seen this year."

Inflation is beginning to ease, with headline grocery price inflation falling to 9.1%, though retailers are competing fiercely on price in the run-up to the festive season – as shown by the cost of the average Christmas dinner rising just 1.3% year-on-year to £31.71.

Kantar said that ingredients like cranberry sauce and carrots have jumped in price year-on-year, by 26.5% and 12.8%, respectively, while the cost of many foods has risen by well-below headline inflation, such as parsnips (+3.3%), potatoes (+7.7%) and frozen turkey (+3.1%).

“The amount of money spent on deals usually leaps in the run up to Christmas, but this year is already looking a bit different. We’re well above 2022 levels, with customers making an additional £180 million in savings this November versus 12 months ago," McKevitt said.

Tesco, Sainsbury, Aldi and Lidl all improved their market share compared with last year, while Asda, Morrisons, Co-op, Waitrose, and Iceland lost some ground.

However, Lidl is the fastest-growing grocer with sales rising by 14.2% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to 26 November, followed by Ocado (+12.1), Aldi (+11.1%) and Sainsbury's (+10.2%).