London job numbers slide after Brexit vote, but not as bad as feared

The impact of Brexit on recruitment in London was not as aggressive as expected, but it is too early to determine whether it is systemic, as the number of available jobs fell 27% in July.

Recruitment agency Morgan McKinley said new jobs on the market fell 12% in July compared to June and 27% compared to July 2015.

Last month, following the Brexit vote on 23 June, the recruiter found just 7,890 jobs, compared to 10,920 in 2015.

Putting a positive spin on it, the 12% month-on-month decline the recruiter said was a “modest decline given the gravity of the referendum”.

There was a 14% decrease in professionals seeking jobs in July, month-on-month and a 13% fall year-on-year.

Morgan McKinley’s operations director Hakan Enver, said: “Hiring slowed as institutions found themselves in a post-Brexit limbo, but the impact of the referendum was not as aggressive as we expected.”

But the recruiter said the year-on-year decline was drastic but consistent with the overall flat climate of the first half of the year. The first half of the year was characterised by an ebbing of both jobs and professional seeking new employment, apart from slight rises in April and June.

Enver said: “Jumping ship in a climate of uncertainty is particularly risky for employees. But we’re also seeing the usual seasonal factors playing out as people take their summer holidays causing a lull in the marketplace. We would expect a bump in the September figures”.

In the the run-up to the European Union referendum leading banks such as JPMorgan and HSBC said Brexit could result in jobs moving from the UK to an EU country, and doubted London maintaining its status as a leading financial centre.

Enver attributed the midle employment backlash to decisive political leadership, in particular to the new London Mayor, who has campaigned since the referendum result that London is open for business.

“The prompt formation of a new government was encouraging and London Mayor Sadiq Khan has emerged as a vocal champion of the City”.

The recruiter said London will remain a leading financial hub as it was not logistically or financially feasible to move workers elsewhere.

“An exodus would require individual businesses to potentially relocate thousands of employees, which simply isn’t logistically or financially feasible. Up to a million Londoners work in the financial sector. Only a small portion of them have the flexibility to up and move to a new country, and no other region can compete with the quantity and calibre of financial professionals”.

Morgan McKinley also found if you moved jobs in July you would likely have had a 16% pay rise, up from 13% in June, but below the 19% average the past 12 months.