Pound plumbs fresh post-Brexit low against the US dollar

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Sharecast News | 04 Oct, 2016

Updated : 12:02

The pound continued to retreat on Tuesday morning, hitting a fresh post-Brexit low, after the government set the date for starting negotiations with the European Union, possibly removing one key piece of uncertainty for traders in foreign exchange markets.

Against the US dollar, the pound was to be seen at 1.2767 as of 0928 BST, having hit an intra-day low of 1.2762 - a fresh 31-year low.

"The post-UK referendum GBP is still one of uncertainty and policy watching, but it feels that not much extra clarity was provided at this weekend’s Conservative Party Conference.

"[...] What will weaken GBP is if markets assign a higher probability to a ‘hard Brexit’, which assumes that the UK could leave the single market, putting migration controls ahead on the bargaining list. Here the debate is still out there, but Brexit Minister David Davis was still pushing for a hard Brexit in his speech over the weekend, with PM May keeping all options open," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a research report sent to clients on 3 October.

Nevertheless, weakness in the pound was having a salutary effect on the nominal value of sterling-denominated equity prices.

As of 1033 BST, the top flight index was jumping 1.44% or 100.79 points to 7,084.48, alongside a gain of 1.56% or 283.74 points to 18,467.55 for the second-tier index.

In parallel, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Gilt was roughly flat at 0.734%.

To take note of perhaps, in an interview with the FT on 20 September, his first with the media after arriving at the Old Lady on Threadneedle Street, Michael Saunders showed more willingness to loosen policy further than when he worked at Citi.

The main reason behind his change in tack was the resilience shown by the pound, which had thus far not weakened by as much as he had predicted in the run-up to the referendum vote.

Sterling had surrendered approximately 11% of its value in trade-weighted terms, versus the between 15% to 20% fall he had forecast earlier in 2016.

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